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Ipswich vs Bournemouth: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 10

· LONDON TIME · Portman Road · Referee: not provided

Ipswich

Ipswich

11 · 6 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 0 D · 3 L · GD -4

VSBournemouth

Bournemouth

17 · 3 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 3 D · 2 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

83.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 83.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

37.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 2.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 4.06

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 93.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 37.8%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.59 × 2.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

53.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 36

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 53.2%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

70.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 70.3%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

89.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 12.15 × 14.99

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 27.14

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 87.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 89.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 12.15 × 14.99 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

46.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 36

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

29.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.39 × 1.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1493 × 1528

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 5 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.39 × 1.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Ipswich recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Bournemouth's 5-match sample contains 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Ipswich at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 1.00 goal scored and 1.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Bournemouth has 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Ipswich's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Bournemouth's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 3 of 5 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.60 per match for Ipswich and 13.60 for Bournemouth. On target, the averages are 4.60 and 5.20, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Last 5

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Season

Ipswich

5 matches
LWLLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
11

Season

Bournemouth

5 matches
LDDDL
W
0
D
3
L
2
GF
6
GA
8

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Ipswich

1.40 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Ipswich

2.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Ipswich

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Ipswich

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Ipswich

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Ipswich

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Ipswich

3.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.20 · 5 matches

Average against

Ipswich

5.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Ipswich

8.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

8.80 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Ipswich

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Ipswich

1.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

2.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Ipswich

2.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

1.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Ipswich

4.00 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.40 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Ipswich

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Ipswich

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Ipswich

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Ipswich

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Bournemouth

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Ipswich

11.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

12.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Ipswich

9.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

14.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Ipswich

20.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

26.00 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Ipswich

11.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

13.60 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Ipswich

4.60 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

5.20 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Ipswich

17.20 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

10.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Ipswich

5.80 · 5 matches

Bournemouth

4.00 · 5 matches

Average xG

Ipswich

1.90 · 2 matches

Bournemouth

1.41 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Ipswich

2.62 · 2 matches

Bournemouth

2.05 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Ipswich at home × Bournemouth away

Ipswich at home

Ipswich

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Bournemouth away

Bournemouth

2 matches
DL
W
0
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Ipswich at home

1.00 · 2 matches

Bournemouth away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Ipswich at home

1.50 · 2 matches

Bournemouth away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Ipswich at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Ipswich at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Ipswich at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Ipswich at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Bournemouth away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Ipswich at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Bournemouth away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Ipswich at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Bournemouth away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Ipswich at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Bournemouth away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Ipswich at home

7.50 · 2 matches

Bournemouth away

9.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Ipswich at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Bournemouth away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Ipswich at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Bournemouth away

4.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Ipswich

Emersonn

Forward

7.11

5 matches · 321 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

L. Davis

Centre-back

6.47

5 matches · 458 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

J. Enciso

Midfielder

6.73

5 matches · 423 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 16 shots on target

Z. Flemming

Forward

6.91

3 matches · 60 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 5 shots on target

J. Clarke

Forward

6.68

4 matches · 172 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

K. Scherpen

Goalkeeper

5.64

5 matches · 368 min

16 saves · 6 goals conceded

C. Walton

Goalkeeper

1.90

3 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier

Midfielder

7.52

5 matches · 427 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 8 of 12 shots on target

Evanilson

Forward

6.72

5 matches · 425 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

J. Kluivert

Forward

6.92

4 matches · 298 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 9 shots on target

A. Scott

Midfielder

6.91

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

A. Truffert

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 450 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Đ. Petrović

Goalkeeper

6.66

5 matches · 450 min

11 saves · 3 goals conceded

M. Di Gregorio

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.