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Fulham vs Newcastle: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 10

· LONDON TIME · Craven Cottage · Referee: not provided

Fulham

Fulham

19 · 2 pts · 5 P · 0 W · 2 D · 3 L · GD -3

VSNewcastle

Newcastle

9 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.37

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 83.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.8%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

34.8%

high
View full analysis
Sample
40 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.09 × 1.75

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 40 / 42

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.84

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 34.8%, high confidence and a sample of 40 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.09 × 1.75 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

62.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.37

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 68.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 62.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

64.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.37

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 64.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

88.3%

high
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 13.93 × 12.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 26.65

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 94.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 88.3%, high confidence and a sample of 43 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 13.93 × 12.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

37.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.37

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 68.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

26.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.37

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

35.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
43 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.35 × 1.38

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1466 × 1490

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 43

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: 1.23 × 1.35

    The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.

  • Model expected goals: 1.32 × 1.37

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Fulham recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Newcastle's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Fulham at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded. Away from home, Newcastle has 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches (60%) of Fulham's sample and 4 of 5 matches (80%) of Newcastle's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches (40%) and 4 of 5 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.00 per match for Fulham and 10.20 for Newcastle. On target, the averages are 4.40 and 3.60, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches
DDLLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
5
GA
8

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches
DDLLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
5
GA
8

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Last 5

Fulham

5 matches
DDLLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
5
GA
8

Last 5

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Season

Fulham

5 matches
DDLLL
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
5
GA
8

Season

Newcastle

5 matches
WLDWD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
9
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Fulham

1.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Fulham

1.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Fulham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Fulham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Fulham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Fulham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Fulham

5.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

4.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Fulham

5.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

6.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Fulham

10.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

10.40 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Fulham

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Newcastle

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Fulham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Fulham

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Fulham

1.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Fulham

0.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

2.40 · 5 matches

Total average

Fulham

2.20 · 5 matches

Newcastle

4.80 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Fulham

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Newcastle

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Fulham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Fulham

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Newcastle

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Fulham

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Newcastle

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Fulham

10.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

12.20 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Fulham

8.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

13.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Fulham

18.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

25.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Fulham

14.00 · 5 matches

Newcastle

10.20 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Fulham

4.40 · 5 matches

Newcastle

3.60 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Fulham

16.60 · 5 matches

Newcastle

19.40 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Fulham

4.80 · 5 matches

Newcastle

5.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Fulham

1.06 · 2 matches

Newcastle

1.17 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Fulham

2.00 · 2 matches

Newcastle

2.01 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Fulham at home × Newcastle away

Fulham at home

Fulham

3 matches
DLL
W
0
D
1
L
2
GF
5
GA
7

Newcastle away

Newcastle

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
3
GA
4
Average goals scored

Fulham at home

1.67 · 3 matches

Newcastle away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Fulham at home

2.33 · 3 matches

Newcastle away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Fulham at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Fulham at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Fulham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Fulham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Fulham at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Fulham at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Newcastle away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Fulham at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Newcastle away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Fulham at home

11.33 · 3 matches

Newcastle away

13.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Fulham at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Newcastle away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Fulham at home

2.67 · 3 matches

Newcastle away

3.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Fulham

Joshua King

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 427 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 7 of 13 shots on target

Gonzalo García

Forward

6.63

5 matches · 427 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 10 shots on target

T. Castagne

Centre-back

6.34

5 matches · 410 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

César Palacios

Midfielder

5.40

5 matches · 231 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

Jorge Cuenca

Centre-back

7.20

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

B. Leno

Goalkeeper

6.48

5 matches · 450 min

16 saves · 4 goals conceded

B. Lecomte

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Newcastle

H. Barnes

Midfielder

6.88

5 matches · 453 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

L. Hall

Centre-back

7.37

5 matches · 455 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

A. Elanga

Forward

7.30

3 matches · 236 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

J. Willock

Midfielder

6.87

5 matches · 288 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Y. Wissa

Forward

6.71

5 matches · 441 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

L. Horníček

Goalkeeper

6.81

5 matches · 455 min

19 saves · 2 goals conceded

N. Pope

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.