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Arsenal vs Hull City: statistics and analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 10

· LONDON TIME · Emirates Stadium · Referee: not provided

Arsenal

Arsenal

2 · 12 pts · 5 P · 4 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD 4

VSHull City

Hull City

8 · 8 pts · 5 P · 2 W · 2 D · 1 L · GD 2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

55.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 0.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 39.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 55.8%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 4.5 yellow cards

36.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — metric: 3.9

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.29 × 2.67

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 68

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 40 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 96.7%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected metric: 3.96

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 91.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 4.5 yellow cards has a model probability of 36.9%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — metric: 3.9 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.29 × 2.67 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

84.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 0.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 45.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 84.4%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

38.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 0.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 51.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 38.8%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — goals: 2.77 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

78.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 25.92

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 16.23 × 8.40

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.2

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 24.63

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 88.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 78.6%, low confidence and a sample of 5 matches per team.

League average — shots: 25.92 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 16.23 × 8.40 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

15.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 0.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 45.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 0.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

61.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
5 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 2.77

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 0.72

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1643 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 59.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 43 / 5

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 0.72

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 51.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 5 recent matches, Arsenal recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Hull City's 5-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.20 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Arsenal at home with 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded. Away from home, Hull City has 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 matches (20%) of Arsenal's sample and 2 of 5 matches (40%) of Hull City's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and 2 of 5 matches (40%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.00 per match for Arsenal and 11.80 for Hull City. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 3.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Last 5

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Season

Arsenal

5 matches
LWWWW
W
4
D
0
L
1
GF
8
GA
4

Season

Hull City

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Arsenal

1.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal

0.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Arsenal

5.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Arsenal

3.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

6.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

8.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

9.60 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Arsenal

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Hull City

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Arsenal

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Arsenal

1.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.40 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

3.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

0.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Arsenal

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Hull City

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Arsenal

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Hull City

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Arsenal

10.20 · 5 matches

Hull City

10.00 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

15.40 · 5 matches

Hull City

7.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

25.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

17.20 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Arsenal

13.00 · 5 matches

Hull City

11.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target

Arsenal

4.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

3.80 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Arsenal

10.60 · 5 matches

Hull City

13.80 · 5 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Arsenal

2.80 · 5 matches

Hull City

4.20 · 5 matches

Average xG

Arsenal

1.46 · 2 matches

Hull City

0.87 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Arsenal

0.26 · 2 matches

Hull City

1.56 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Arsenal at home × Hull City away

Arsenal at home

Arsenal

2 matches
WW
W
2
D
0
L
0
GF
5
GA
1

Hull City away

Hull City

3 matches
LDW
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
4
GA
4
Average goals scored

Arsenal at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Hull City away

1.33 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal at home

0.50 · 2 matches

Hull City away

1.33 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Hull City away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Hull City away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Hull City away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Hull City away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Arsenal at home

9.00 · 2 matches

Hull City away

11.33 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Arsenal at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Hull City away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total card average

Arsenal at home

4.00 · 2 matches

Hull City away

5.33 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Arsenal

B. Saka

Forward

7.20

5 matches · 428 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 9 of 13 shots on target

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

7.41

5 matches · 382 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.32

5 matches · 414 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

K. Havertz

Forward

6.91

5 matches · 448 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 10 shots on target

R. Calafiori

Centre-back

6.84

5 matches · 428 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 6 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

6.77

5 matches · 460 min

9 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kepa

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Hull City

M. Belloumi

Midfielder

7.09

5 matches · 398 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

N. Mendy

Centre-back

7.17

4 matches · 253 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

R. Giles

Centre-back

6.92

5 matches · 451 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Ajayi

Centre-back

6.79

5 matches · 430 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

M. Cho

Forward

6.76

4 matches · 78 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Tzolakis

Goalkeeper

7.25

5 matches · 456 min

17 saves · 0 goals conceded

D. Phillips

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.