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Villarreal vs Manchester United: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Estadio de la Ceramica · Referee: not provided

Villarreal

Villarreal

21 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSManchester United

Manchester United

4 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

83.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 50.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 83.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

61.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 61.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 61.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

84.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 84.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

38.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 38.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

51.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 21.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

26.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.36 × 2.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.36 × 2.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 5.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 9 recent matches, Villarreal recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats and averaged 0.78 goals scored per match. Manchester United's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 4.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Villarreal's sample and 0 of 1 matches (0%) of Manchester United's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 9 matches (67%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.56 per match for Villarreal and 21.00 for Manchester United. On target, the averages are 4.00 and 10.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Villarreal

5 matches
LLLLL
W
0
D
0
L
5
GF
5
GA
15

Last 5

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Season

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Season

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Villarreal

0.78 · 9 matches

Manchester United

4.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Villarreal

2.33 · 9 matches

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Villarreal

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Villarreal

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Villarreal

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Villarreal

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Villarreal

3.78 · 9 matches

Manchester United

7.00 · 1 match

Average against

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

Total average

Villarreal

7.78 · 9 matches

Manchester United

9.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Villarreal

2.56 · 9 matches

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Villarreal

1.78 · 9 matches

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

Total average

Villarreal

4.33 · 9 matches

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Villarreal

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Villarreal

12.44 · 9 matches

Manchester United

12.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Villarreal

13.78 · 9 matches

Manchester United

13.00 · 1 match

Total average

Villarreal

26.22 · 9 matches

Manchester United

25.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Villarreal

13.56 · 9 matches

Manchester United

21.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Manchester United

10.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Villarreal

11.78 · 9 matches

Manchester United

11.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Villarreal

4.78 · 9 matches

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Villarreal

1.22 · 8 matches

Manchester United

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Villarreal

1.52 · 8 matches

Manchester United

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Villarreal at home × Manchester United away

Villarreal at home

Villarreal

4 matches
LLLD
W
0
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
9

Manchester United away

Manchester United

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

Villarreal at home

1.25 · 4 matches

Manchester United away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

Villarreal at home

2.25 · 4 matches

Manchester United away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

Villarreal at home

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

Villarreal at home

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

Villarreal at home

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

Villarreal at home

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

Villarreal at home

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

Villarreal at home

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

Villarreal at home

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

Villarreal at home

8.25 · 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

Villarreal at home

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Total card average

Villarreal at home

5.00 · 4 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Villarreal

S. Mouriño

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Mikautadze

Forward

6.95

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

T. Buchanan

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

N. Pépé

Forward

6.76

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Freeman

Centre-back

6.56

1 matches · 45 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

P. Gulácsi

Goalkeeper

6.70

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

Rubén Gómez

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Manchester United

Matheus Cunha

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Lisandro Martínez

Centre-back

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

P. Dorgu

Centre-back

7.87

1 matches · 72 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. Šeško

Forward

7.84

1 matches · 64 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

6.66

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.