RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Slavia Praha vs Aston Villa: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Fortuna Arena · Referee: not provided

Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha

23 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSAston Villa

Aston Villa

9 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

81.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 55.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 81.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

64.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 67.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 64.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

84.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 84.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

43.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 80.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 43.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

46.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

31.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.52 × 1.90

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.52 × 1.90

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 9 recent matches, Slavia Praha recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats and averaged 0.78 goals scored per match. Aston Villa's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Slavia Praha at home with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 5 matches, averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded. Away from home, Aston Villa has 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Slavia Praha's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Aston Villa's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 9 matches (78%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.00 per match for Slavia Praha and 21.00 for Aston Villa. On target, the averages are 3.89 and 9.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Slavia Praha

5 matches
LLLLD
W
0
D
1
L
4
GF
5
GA
14

Last 5

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 9

Slavia Praha

9 matches
LLLLDLDLD
W
0
D
3
L
6
GF
7
GA
22

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 9

Slavia Praha

9 matches
LLLLDLDLD
W
0
D
3
L
6
GF
7
GA
22

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Slavia Praha

9 matches
LLLLDLDLD
W
0
D
3
L
6
GF
7
GA
22

Season

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Slavia Praha

0.78 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Slavia Praha

2.44 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Slavia Praha

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Slavia Praha

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Slavia Praha

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Slavia Praha

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Slavia Praha

3.67 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

Slavia Praha

6.22 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

4.00 · 1 match

Total average

Slavia Praha

9.89 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Slavia Praha

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Slavia Praha

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Slavia Praha

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Slavia Praha

1.89 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Slavia Praha

2.33 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Slavia Praha

4.22 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

6.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Slavia Praha

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Slavia Praha

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Slavia Praha

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Slavia Praha

15.89 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Slavia Praha

10.67 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

17.00 · 1 match

Total average

Slavia Praha

26.56 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

31.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Slavia Praha

13.00 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

21.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Slavia Praha

3.89 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Slavia Praha

17.67 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Slavia Praha

7.89 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

7.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Slavia Praha

1.19 · 8 matches

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Slavia Praha

2.21 · 8 matches

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Slavia Praha at home × Aston Villa away

Slavia Praha at home

Slavia Praha

5 matches
LLDLD
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
6
GA
12

Aston Villa away

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2
Average goals scored

Slavia Praha at home

1.20 · 5 matches

Aston Villa away

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Slavia Praha at home

2.40 · 5 matches

Aston Villa away

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Slavia Praha at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Slavia Praha at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Slavia Praha at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Slavia Praha at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Slavia Praha at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Slavia Praha at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Aston Villa away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Slavia Praha at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Aston Villa away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Slavia Praha at home

10.80 · 5 matches

Aston Villa away

9.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Slavia Praha at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Total card average

Slavia Praha at home

4.00 · 5 matches

Aston Villa away

6.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Slavia Praha

D. Šturm

Forward

8.10

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

S. Isife

Midfielder

6.90

1 matches · 84 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Sadílek

Midfielder

6.79

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

I. Schranz

Forward

6.45

1 matches · 6 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Š. Chaloupek

Centre-back

6.35

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

J. Markovič

Goalkeeper

6.66

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

Adam Rezek

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Aston Villa

Pau Torres

Centre-back

7.80

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 81 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

João Gomes

Midfielder

7.63

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Buendía

Midfielder

7.49

1 matches · 68 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.33

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.