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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Stamford Bridge · Referee: not provided

Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk

18 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

VSReal Madrid

Real Madrid

14 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

83.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 79.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 83.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

63.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 84.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 63.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

83.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 83.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

43.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 61.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 43.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

41.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

34.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.55 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.55 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 43.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Shakhtar Donetsk recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Real Madrid's 10-match sample contains 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 2.30 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Shakhtar Donetsk's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Real Madrid's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 0 of 1 matches (0%) and 9 of 10 matches (90%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 8.00 per match for Shakhtar Donetsk and 16.10 for Real Madrid. On target, the averages are 2.00 and 5.90, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 5

Real Madrid

5 matches
WLLWW
W
3
D
0
L
2
GF
11
GA
8

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 10

Real Madrid

10 matches
WLLWWWWLWL
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 15

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Season

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Season

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

2.30 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

1.60 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

4.90 · 10 matches

Average against

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

7.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

12.40 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

2.90 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

2.20 · 10 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

9.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

5.10 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Shakhtar Donetsk

15.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

11.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Shakhtar Donetsk

14.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

10.60 · 10 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

29.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

22.30 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Shakhtar Donetsk

8.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

16.10 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

5.90 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

10.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

16.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Real Madrid

6.90 · 10 matches

Average xG

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Real Madrid

2.08 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Real Madrid

1.87 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Shakhtar Donetsk at home × Real Madrid away

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Shakhtar Donetsk

0 matches

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

Real Madrid

7 matches
LWWLWLW
W
4
D
0
L
3
GF
17
GA
13
Average goals scored

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Real Madrid away

2.43 · 7 matches

Average goals conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Real Madrid away

1.86 · 7 matches

Over 0.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 1.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Both teams scored

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Clean sheet

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Failed to score

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Total corner average

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

9.86 · 7 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Total card average

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Real Madrid away

5.43 · 7 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Shakhtar Donetsk

G. Mendoza

Midfielder

7.17

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Pedrinho

Centre-back

6.79

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

V. Bondar

Centre-back

6.69

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

L. Traoré

Forward

6.62

1 matches · 24 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Marlon Gomes

Midfielder

6.53

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

D. Riznyk

Goalkeeper

5.86

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Fesyun

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Real Madrid

F. Valverde

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Kylian Mbappé

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 89 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 4 shots on target

Brahim Díaz

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 79 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Marc Cucurella

Centre-back

7.13

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Bellingham

Midfielder

6.87

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

T. Courtois

Goalkeeper

7.90

1 matches · 90 min

7 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Lunin

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.