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PSV Eindhoven vs VfB Stuttgart: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Philips Stadion · Referee: not provided

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven

19 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

VSVfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

6 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

77.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 69.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 77.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

65.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 65.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

84.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 84.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

48.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 55.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 48.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

35.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

40.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.73 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.73 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 9 recent matches, PSV Eindhoven recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats and averaged 1.89 goals scored per match. VfB Stuttgart's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 8 of 9 matches (89%) of PSV Eindhoven's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of VfB Stuttgart's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 9 matches (67%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.67 per match for PSV Eindhoven and 17.00 for VfB Stuttgart. On target, the averages are 3.67 and 3.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

PSV Eindhoven

5 matches
DLLLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
8
GA
10

Last 5

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Last 9

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Last 1

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Last 9

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Last 1

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Season

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Season

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

PSV Eindhoven

1.89 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

PSV Eindhoven

1.89 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

PSV Eindhoven

100% · 9 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

PSV Eindhoven

100% · 9 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

PSV Eindhoven

44% · 4 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

PSV Eindhoven

89% · 8 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

PSV Eindhoven

0% · 0 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

PSV Eindhoven

11% · 1 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

PSV Eindhoven

4.78 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

4.00 · 1 match

Average against

PSV Eindhoven

5.89 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

9.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

PSV Eindhoven

78% · 7 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

PSV Eindhoven

78% · 7 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

PSV Eindhoven

44% · 4 of 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

PSV Eindhoven

3.00 · 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

PSV Eindhoven

2.13 · 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

PSV Eindhoven

5.13 · 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

13.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

PSV Eindhoven

9.56 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

13.00 · 1 match

Total average

PSV Eindhoven

20.22 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

26.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

17.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

PSV Eindhoven

3.67 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

PSV Eindhoven

15.33 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

9.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

PSV Eindhoven

5.67 · 9 matches

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Average xG

PSV Eindhoven

1.52 · 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

Insufficient data

Average xG against

PSV Eindhoven

2.01 · 8 matches

VfB Stuttgart

Insufficient data

Home vs away

PSV Eindhoven at home × VfB Stuttgart away

PSV Eindhoven at home

PSV Eindhoven

5 matches
DLLWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
11
GA
11

VfB Stuttgart away

VfB Stuttgart

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

PSV Eindhoven at home

2.20 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

PSV Eindhoven at home

2.20 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

PSV Eindhoven at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

PSV Eindhoven at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

PSV Eindhoven at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

PSV Eindhoven at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

PSV Eindhoven at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

PSV Eindhoven at home

0% · 0 of 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

PSV Eindhoven at home

0% · 0 of 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

PSV Eindhoven at home

11.40 · 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

PSV Eindhoven at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Total card average

PSV Eindhoven at home

7.50 · 4 matches

VfB Stuttgart away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

PSV Eindhoven

S. Dest

Centre-back

7.00

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Obispo

Centre-back

6.98

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

F. Kostić

Midfielder

6.87

1 matches · 68 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

K. Sano

Midfielder

6.84

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

L. Geertruida

Centre-back

6.65

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Kovář

Goalkeeper

6.57

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

N. Olij

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

VfB Stuttgart

E. Demirović

Forward

9.50

1 matches · 62 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

D. Undav

Midfielder

7.97

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

A. Stiller

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Chabot

Centre-back

7.44

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. El Khannouss

Midfielder

6.90

1 matches · 71 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

F. Bredlow

Goalkeeper

6.55

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Funk

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.