RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Paris Saint Germain vs Galatasaray: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Parc des Princes · Referee: not provided

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain

1 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 5

VSGalatasaray

Galatasaray

30 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

66.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 84.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 66.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

61.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 82.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 61.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

83.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 83.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

88.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 78.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 88.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

74.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 70.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 74.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

13.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 56.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

16.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

70.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.80 × 1.11

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1485

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.80 × 1.11

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 45.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Paris Saint Germain recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.00 goals scored per match. Galatasaray's 10-match sample contains 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats, with 1.10 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Paris Saint Germain at home with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 10 matches, averaging 3.20 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded. Away from home, Galatasaray has 1 win, 0 draws and 6 defeats in 7 matches, with 0.71 goals scored and 2.57 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of 10 matches (70%) of Paris Saint Germain's sample and 3 of 10 matches (30%) of Galatasaray's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 10 matches (60%) and 5 of 10 matches (50%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 18.10 per match for Paris Saint Germain and 12.00 for Galatasaray. On target, the averages are 7.10 and 4.30, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Paris Saint Germain

5 matches
WDDWW
W
3
D
2
L
0
GF
15
GA
7

Last 5

Galatasaray

5 matches
LLWLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
12

Last 10

Paris Saint Germain

10 matches
WDDWWWWWDW
W
7
D
3
L
0
GF
30
GA
13

Last 10

Galatasaray

10 matches
LLWLWLDLLW
W
3
D
1
L
6
GF
11
GA
17

Last 18

Paris Saint Germain

18 matches
WDDWWWWWDWDLDWLWWW
W
11
D
5
L
2
GF
51
GA
24

Last 13

Galatasaray

13 matches
LLWLWLDLLWWWL
W
5
D
1
L
7
GF
16
GA
23

Season

Paris Saint Germain

18 matches
WDDWWWWWDWDLDWLWWW
W
11
D
5
L
2
GF
51
GA
24

Season

Galatasaray

13 matches
LLWLWLDLLWWWL
W
5
D
1
L
7
GF
16
GA
23

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Paris Saint Germain

3.00 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

1.10 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Paris Saint Germain

1.30 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

1.70 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Paris Saint Germain

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Paris Saint Germain

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Paris Saint Germain

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Paris Saint Germain

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Paris Saint Germain

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Paris Saint Germain

5.40 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

3.90 · 10 matches

Average against

Paris Saint Germain

3.70 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

5.10 · 10 matches

Total average

Paris Saint Germain

9.10 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

9.00 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Paris Saint Germain

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Galatasaray

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Paris Saint Germain

1.11 · 9 matches

Galatasaray

2.33 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Paris Saint Germain

2.33 · 9 matches

Galatasaray

2.78 · 9 matches

Total average

Paris Saint Germain

3.44 · 9 matches

Galatasaray

5.11 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Paris Saint Germain

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Galatasaray

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Galatasaray

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Galatasaray

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Galatasaray

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Paris Saint Germain

9.70 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

11.10 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Paris Saint Germain

10.30 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

14.10 · 10 matches

Total average

Paris Saint Germain

20.00 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

25.20 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Paris Saint Germain

18.10 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

12.00 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Paris Saint Germain

7.10 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

4.30 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Paris Saint Germain

11.20 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

15.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Paris Saint Germain

4.50 · 10 matches

Galatasaray

6.10 · 10 matches

Average xG

Paris Saint Germain

1.73 · 9 matches

Galatasaray

1.36 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Paris Saint Germain

1.38 · 9 matches

Galatasaray

2.44 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Paris Saint Germain at home × Galatasaray away

Paris Saint Germain at home

Paris Saint Germain

10 matches
WDWWWDDWLW
W
6
D
3
L
1
GF
32
GA
16

Galatasaray away

Galatasaray

7 matches
LLLLLWL
W
1
D
0
L
6
GF
5
GA
18
Average goals scored

Paris Saint Germain at home

3.20 · 10 matches

Galatasaray away

0.71 · 7 matches

Average goals conceded

Paris Saint Germain at home

1.60 · 10 matches

Galatasaray away

2.57 · 7 matches

Over 0.5

Paris Saint Germain at home

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Galatasaray away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 1.5

Paris Saint Germain at home

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Galatasaray away

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Over 2.5

Paris Saint Germain at home

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Galatasaray away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Over 3.5

Paris Saint Germain at home

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Galatasaray away

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Both teams scored

Paris Saint Germain at home

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Galatasaray away

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Clean sheet

Paris Saint Germain at home

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Galatasaray away

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Failed to score

Paris Saint Germain at home

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Galatasaray away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Total corner average

Paris Saint Germain at home

8.40 · 10 matches

Galatasaray away

8.00 · 7 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Paris Saint Germain at home

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Galatasaray away

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Total card average

Paris Saint Germain at home

2.90 · 10 matches

Galatasaray away

3.67 · 6 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Paris Saint Germain

O. Dembélé

Forward

9.23

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Ferran Torres

Forward

9.70

1 matches · 73 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

Fabián Ruiz

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

M. Akliouche

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Vitinha

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Safonov

Goalkeeper

6.89

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

L. Chevalier

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Galatasaray

R. Sallai

Centre-back

6.68

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Rafael Leão

Midfielder

6.61

1 matches · 32 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

L. Torreira

Midfielder

6.55

1 matches · 85 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

B. Yılmaz

Forward

6.31

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

D. Sánchez

Centre-back

6.26

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

U. Çakır

Goalkeeper

5.90

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

J. Yılmaz

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.