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Napoli vs Viking: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona · Referee: not provided

Napoli

Napoli

27 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSViking

Viking

29 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

78.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 78.9%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

60.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 82.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 60.5%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

75.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 75.5%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.2%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

81.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 81.1%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

46.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 46.2%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

36.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

39.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.58 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1475 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.58 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 9 recent matches, Napoli recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Viking's 3-match sample contains 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Napoli at home with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 5 matches, averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Viking has 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 2 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Napoli's sample and 3 of 3 matches (100%) of Viking's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 9 matches (33%) and 3 of 3 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.00 per match for Napoli and 9.33 for Viking. On target, the averages are 3.56 and 4.67, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Napoli

5 matches
LLDLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
7

Last 5

Viking

3 matches
LWD
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
6
GA
6

Last 9

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Last 3

Viking

3 matches
LWD
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
6
GA
6

Last 9

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Last 3

Viking

3 matches
LWD
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
6
GA
6

Season

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Season

Viking

3 matches
LWD
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
6
GA
6

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Napoli

1.00 · 9 matches

Viking

2.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Napoli

1.78 · 9 matches

Viking

2.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Napoli

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Viking

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Napoli

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Viking

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Napoli

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Viking

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Viking

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Viking

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Viking

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Viking

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Napoli

5.44 · 9 matches

Viking

3.67 · 3 matches

Average against

Napoli

3.56 · 9 matches

Viking

6.00 · 3 matches

Total average

Napoli

9.00 · 9 matches

Viking

9.67 · 3 matches

Over 7.5

Napoli

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Viking

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 8.5

Napoli

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Viking

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 9.5

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Viking

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 10.5

Napoli

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Viking

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 11.5

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Viking

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Napoli

2.00 · 8 matches

Viking

2.67 · 3 matches

Opponent average

Napoli

1.63 · 8 matches

Viking

1.00 · 3 matches

Total average

Napoli

3.63 · 8 matches

Viking

3.67 · 3 matches

Over 2.5

Napoli

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Viking

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Napoli

38% · 3 of 8 matches

Viking

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 4.5

Napoli

25% · 2 of 8 matches

Viking

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 5.5

Napoli

13% · 1 of 8 matches

Viking

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Napoli

13.56 · 9 matches

Viking

13.00 · 3 matches

Opponent average

Napoli

9.89 · 9 matches

Viking

12.33 · 3 matches

Total average

Napoli

23.44 · 9 matches

Viking

25.33 · 3 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Napoli

11.00 · 9 matches

Viking

9.33 · 3 matches

Average shots on target

Napoli

3.56 · 9 matches

Viking

4.67 · 3 matches

Average shots conceded

Napoli

13.67 · 9 matches

Viking

20.00 · 3 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Napoli

5.33 · 9 matches

Viking

3.67 · 3 matches

Average xG

Napoli

1.33 · 8 matches

Viking

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Napoli

1.61 · 8 matches

Viking

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Napoli at home × Viking away

Napoli at home

Napoli

5 matches
LLWDW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
6
GA
5

Viking away

Viking

2 matches
LD
W
0
D
1
L
1
GF
3
GA
5
Average goals scored

Napoli at home

1.20 · 5 matches

Viking away

1.50 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Napoli at home

1.00 · 5 matches

Viking away

2.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Napoli at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Viking away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Napoli at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Viking away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Napoli at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Viking away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Napoli at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Viking away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Napoli at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Viking away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Napoli at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Viking away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Napoli at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Viking away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Napoli at home

7.60 · 5 matches

Viking away

10.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Napoli at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Viking away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Napoli at home

3.25 · 4 matches

Viking away

2.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Napoli

Rafa Marín

Centre-back

7.10

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Olivera

Centre-back

6.85

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Amir Rrahmani

Centre-back

6.76

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

G. Di Lorenzo

Centre-back

6.73

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Politano

Midfielder

6.64

1 matches · 57 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

A. Meret

Goalkeeper

7.40

1 matches · 45 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

V. Milinković-Savić

Goalkeeper

6.72

1 matches · 45 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

Viking

Z. Tripić

Midfielder

8.13

3 matches · 259 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 5 shots on target

T. Moi

Midfielder

6.73

3 matches · 219 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

H. Bjørdal

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

P. Christiansen

Forward

6.71

3 matches · 267 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

H. Falchener

Centre-back

6.44

3 matches · 179 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Østbø

Goalkeeper

6.18

3 matches · 270 min

6 saves · 3 goals conceded

Ľ. Belko

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.