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Manchester City vs Sporting CP: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Etihad Stadium · Referee: not provided

Manchester City

Manchester City

8 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

VSSporting CP

Sporting CP

7 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

58.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 82

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 58.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

75.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 75.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

94.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 94.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

80.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 80.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

50.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 58.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 50.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

33.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

41.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.59 × 1.39

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.39

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Manchester City recorded 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Sporting CP's 10-match sample contains 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester City at home with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 5 matches, averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Sporting CP has 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.83 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Manchester City's sample and 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Sporting CP's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 10 matches (60%) and 7 of 10 matches (70%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 15.30 per match for Manchester City and 12.00 for Sporting CP. On target, the averages are 7.00 and 4.70, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WLLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Sporting CP

5 matches
WDLWL
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
6
GA
5

Last 10

Manchester City

10 matches
WLLWLWLWWD
W
5
D
1
L
4
GF
16
GA
14

Last 10

Sporting CP

10 matches
WDLWLWWLWD
W
5
D
2
L
3
GF
16
GA
12

Last 11

Manchester City

11 matches
WLLWLWLWWDW
W
6
D
1
L
4
GF
18
GA
14

Last 13

Sporting CP

13 matches
WDLWLWWLWDWLW
W
7
D
2
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Season

Manchester City

11 matches
WLLWLWLWWDW
W
6
D
1
L
4
GF
18
GA
14

Season

Sporting CP

13 matches
WDLWLWWLWDWLW
W
7
D
2
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester City

1.60 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

1.60 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City

1.40 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

1.20 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester City

5.90 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

4.30 · 10 matches

Average against

Manchester City

3.30 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

5.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Manchester City

9.20 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

9.80 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester City

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester City

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester City

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester City

2.30 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

2.00 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

1.50 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

2.20 · 10 matches

Total average

Manchester City

3.80 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

4.20 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Sporting CP

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester City

11.30 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

10.80 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

10.90 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

12.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Manchester City

22.20 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

23.50 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester City

15.30 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

12.00 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester City

7.00 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

4.70 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester City

9.70 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

13.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester City

3.50 · 10 matches

Sporting CP

4.30 · 10 matches

Average xG

Manchester City

1.64 · 9 matches

Sporting CP

1.15 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Manchester City

1.46 · 9 matches

Sporting CP

1.30 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Manchester City at home × Sporting CP away

Manchester City at home

Manchester City

5 matches
LWLWW
W
3
D
0
L
2
GF
9
GA
5

Sporting CP away

Sporting CP

6 matches
DLWLDL
W
1
D
2
L
3
GF
6
GA
11
Average goals scored

Manchester City at home

1.80 · 5 matches

Sporting CP away

1.00 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City at home

1.00 · 5 matches

Sporting CP away

1.83 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Sporting CP away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Sporting CP away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sporting CP away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sporting CP away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sporting CP away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Sporting CP away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Sporting CP away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Total corner average

Manchester City at home

10.80 · 5 matches

Sporting CP away

9.17 · 6 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester City at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Sporting CP away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Total card average

Manchester City at home

2.40 · 5 matches

Sporting CP away

4.20 · 5 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

8.00

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

E. Fernández

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

R. Aït-Nouri

Centre-back

7.09

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Matheus Nunes

Centre-back

7.30

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

P. Foden

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.94

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Sporting CP

Geny Catamo

Midfielder

7.56

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

L. Suárez

Forward

7.14

1 matches · 74 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

R. Zalazar

Midfielder

6.91

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Eduardo Quaresma

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 84 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Araújo

Centre-back

6.75

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Rui Silva

Goalkeeper

7.08

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kaique

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.