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Liverpool vs Lens: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Anfield · Referee: not provided

Liverpool

Liverpool

13 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSLens

Lens

10 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

71.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 71.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

60.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 67.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 60.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

82.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 85.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 82.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

57.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 68.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 57.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

24.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

52.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.00 × 1.28

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1510

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.00 × 1.28

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Liverpool recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats and averaged 1.80 goals scored per match. Lens's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Liverpool at home with 5 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 7 matches, averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded. Away from home, Lens has 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 10 matches (20%) of Liverpool's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Lens's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 of 10 matches (50%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 19.00 per match for Liverpool and 26.00 for Lens. On target, the averages are 7.10 and 8.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WLLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
6

Last 5

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 10

Liverpool

10 matches
WLLWLWWWLW
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
18
GA
10

Last 1

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 13

Liverpool

13 matches
WLLWLWWWLWWLW
W
8
D
0
L
5
GF
26
GA
14

Last 1

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Liverpool

13 matches
WLLWLWWWLWWLW
W
8
D
0
L
5
GF
26
GA
14

Season

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Liverpool

1.80 · 10 matches

Lens

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Liverpool

1.00 · 10 matches

Lens

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Liverpool

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Liverpool

6.20 · 10 matches

Lens

9.00 · 1 match

Average against

Liverpool

3.90 · 10 matches

Lens

6.00 · 1 match

Total average

Liverpool

10.10 · 10 matches

Lens

15.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Liverpool

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Liverpool

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Liverpool

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Liverpool

1.44 · 9 matches

Lens

1.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Liverpool

1.22 · 9 matches

Lens

1.00 · 1 match

Total average

Liverpool

2.67 · 9 matches

Lens

2.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Liverpool

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Liverpool

12.60 · 10 matches

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Liverpool

9.10 · 10 matches

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Total average

Liverpool

21.70 · 10 matches

Lens

16.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Liverpool

19.00 · 10 matches

Lens

26.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Liverpool

7.10 · 10 matches

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Liverpool

10.40 · 10 matches

Lens

18.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Liverpool

3.60 · 10 matches

Lens

5.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Liverpool

2.46 · 9 matches

Lens

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Liverpool

1.03 · 9 matches

Lens

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Liverpool at home × Lens away

Liverpool at home

Liverpool

7 matches
WLWWLWW
W
5
D
0
L
2
GF
17
GA
9

Lens away

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2
Average goals scored

Liverpool at home

2.43 · 7 matches

Lens away

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Liverpool at home

1.29 · 7 matches

Lens away

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Liverpool at home

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Lens away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Lens away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool at home

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Lens away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool at home

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Lens away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Lens away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Lens away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool at home

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Lens away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Liverpool at home

11.29 · 7 matches

Lens away

15.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Liverpool at home

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Lens away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Total card average

Liverpool at home

2.33 · 6 matches

Lens away

2.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Liverpool

D. Szoboszlai

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Mac Allister

Midfielder

7.60

1 matches · 69 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Isak

Forward

6.91

1 matches · 88 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

R. Araújo

Centre-back

6.67

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Víctor Muñoz

Forward

7.01

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Alisson Becker

Goalkeeper

6.84

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

G. Mamardashvili

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Lens

F. Thauvin

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 8 shots on target

A. Sima

Forward

7.67

1 matches · 75 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

R. Aguilar

Midfielder

7.47

1 matches · 28 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

F. Sotoca

Forward

7.06

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

O. Édouard

Forward

6.82

1 matches · 28 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

R. Risser

Goalkeeper

6.34

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Gorgelin

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.