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Lask Linz vs FC Porto: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Raiffeisen Arena · Referee: not provided

Lask Linz

Lask Linz

28 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSFC Porto

FC Porto

31 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

62.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 62.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

56.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 71.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 56.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

79.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 79.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

50.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 60.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 50.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

25.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

50.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.80 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.80 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 87.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 3 recent matches, Lask Linz recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.33 goals scored per match. FC Porto's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 0.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 3 matches (33%) of Lask Linz's sample and 0 of 1 matches (0%) of FC Porto's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 3 matches (67%) and 0 of 1 matches (0%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 23.67 per match for Lask Linz and 5.00 for FC Porto. On target, the averages are 6.33 and 0.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Lask Linz

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 5

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Last 3

Lask Linz

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 1

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Last 3

Lask Linz

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 1

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Season

Lask Linz

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Season

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Lask Linz

1.33 · 3 matches

FC Porto

0.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Lask Linz

1.67 · 3 matches

FC Porto

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Lask Linz

100% · 3 of 3 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Lask Linz

33% · 1 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Lask Linz

33% · 1 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Lask Linz

0% · 0 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Lask Linz

5.33 · 3 matches

FC Porto

2.00 · 1 match

Average against

Lask Linz

6.67 · 3 matches

FC Porto

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

Lask Linz

12.00 · 3 matches

FC Porto

7.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Lask Linz

100% · 3 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Lask Linz

100% · 3 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Lask Linz

100% · 3 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Lask Linz

33% · 1 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Lask Linz

1.67 · 3 matches

FC Porto

1.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Lask Linz

0.67 · 3 matches

FC Porto

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Lask Linz

2.33 · 3 matches

FC Porto

4.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Lask Linz

0% · 0 of 3 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Lask Linz

0% · 0 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Lask Linz

0% · 0 of 3 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Lask Linz

14.67 · 3 matches

FC Porto

10.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Lask Linz

9.00 · 3 matches

FC Porto

17.00 · 1 match

Total average

Lask Linz

23.67 · 3 matches

FC Porto

27.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Lask Linz

23.67 · 3 matches

FC Porto

5.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Lask Linz

6.33 · 3 matches

FC Porto

0.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Lask Linz

14.33 · 3 matches

FC Porto

20.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Lask Linz

4.67 · 3 matches

FC Porto

10.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Lask Linz

Insufficient data

FC Porto

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Lask Linz

Insufficient data

FC Porto

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Lask Linz at home × FC Porto away

Lask Linz at home

Lask Linz

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

FC Porto away

FC Porto

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

Lask Linz at home

4.00 · 1 match

FC Porto away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

Lask Linz at home

1.00 · 1 match

FC Porto away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

Lask Linz at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

Lask Linz at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

Lask Linz at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

Lask Linz at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

Lask Linz at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

Lask Linz at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

Lask Linz at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

Lask Linz at home

15.00 · 1 match

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

Lask Linz at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Total card average

Lask Linz at home

3.00 · 1 match

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Lask Linz

M. Usor

Forward

7.21

3 matches · 262 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

S. Adeniran

Forward

7.00

2 matches · 210 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 12 shots on target

S. Horvath

Midfielder

6.95

3 matches · 279 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 7 shots on target

R. Ljubičić

Midfielder

6.69

3 matches · 236 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

F. Flecker

Midfielder

6.55

2 matches · 39 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

L. Jungwirth

Goalkeeper

6.52

3 matches · 300 min

8 saves · 4 goals conceded

T. Schützenauer

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

FC Porto

N. Pérez

Centre-back

6.62

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Kiwior

Centre-back

6.61

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Giménez

Forward

6.52

1 matches · 17 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Borja Sainz

Forward

6.44

1 matches · 22 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Martim Fernandes

Centre-back

6.42

1 matches · 73 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Diogo Costa

Goalkeeper

8.27

1 matches · 90 min

8 saves · 0 goals conceded

Andorinha

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.