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Feyenoord vs RB Leipzig: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · De Kuip · Referee: not provided

Feyenoord

Feyenoord

33 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -4

VSRB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

32 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -3

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

77.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 70.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 77.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

66.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 74.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 66.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

86.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 86.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

58.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 58.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

31.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

46.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.98 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.98 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 3 recent matches, Feyenoord recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.67 goals scored per match. RB Leipzig's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.00 goal scored per match.

The venue split shows Feyenoord at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, RB Leipzig has 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 1 match, with 1.00 goal scored and 4.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 3 matches (100%) of Feyenoord's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of RB Leipzig's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 3 matches (100%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.00 per match for Feyenoord and 14.00 for RB Leipzig. On target, the averages are 4.67 and 4.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Feyenoord

3 matches
LLW
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
5
GA
11

Last 5

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Last 3

Feyenoord

3 matches
LLW
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
5
GA
11

Last 1

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Last 3

Feyenoord

3 matches
LLW
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
5
GA
11

Last 1

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Season

Feyenoord

3 matches
LLW
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
5
GA
11

Season

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Feyenoord

1.67 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Feyenoord

3.67 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

4.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Feyenoord

100% · 3 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Feyenoord

100% · 3 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Feyenoord

100% · 3 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Feyenoord

67% · 2 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Feyenoord

100% · 3 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Feyenoord

0% · 0 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Feyenoord

0% · 0 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Feyenoord

3.67 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

Feyenoord

4.67 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

1.00 · 1 match

Total average

Feyenoord

8.33 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

6.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Feyenoord

67% · 2 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Feyenoord

33% · 1 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Feyenoord

33% · 1 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Feyenoord

33% · 1 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Feyenoord

33% · 1 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Feyenoord

2.00 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

3.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Feyenoord

1.00 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

2.00 · 1 match

Total average

Feyenoord

3.00 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

5.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Feyenoord

67% · 2 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Feyenoord

33% · 1 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Feyenoord

0% · 0 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Feyenoord

0% · 0 of 3 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Feyenoord

14.00 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

10.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Feyenoord

14.33 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

9.00 · 1 match

Total average

Feyenoord

28.33 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

19.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Feyenoord

11.00 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Feyenoord

4.67 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

4.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Feyenoord

15.33 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Feyenoord

6.33 · 3 matches

RB Leipzig

6.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Feyenoord

Insufficient data

RB Leipzig

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Feyenoord

Insufficient data

RB Leipzig

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Feyenoord at home × RB Leipzig away

Feyenoord at home

Feyenoord

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
2
GA
1

RB Leipzig away

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4
Average goals scored

Feyenoord at home

2.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig away

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Feyenoord at home

1.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig away

4.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Feyenoord at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Feyenoord at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Feyenoord at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Feyenoord at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Feyenoord at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Feyenoord at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Feyenoord at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Feyenoord at home

8.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig away

6.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Feyenoord at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total card average

Feyenoord at home

3.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig away

5.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Feyenoord

S. Steijn

Midfielder

6.68

1 matches · 18 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Gonçalo Borges

Forward

6.58

1 matches · 18 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

O. Targhalline

Midfielder

6.53

1 matches · 45 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Nacho Ferri

Forward

6.48

1 matches · 63 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

G. Zechiël

Midfielder

6.40

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

T. Ernst

Goalkeeper

5.86

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

F. Kastenmeier

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

RB Leipzig

A. Maksimović

Midfielder

7.18

1 matches · 70 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

C. Nkunku

Midfielder

7.09

1 matches · 60 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

T. Gomis

Forward

6.58

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

A. Nusa

Midfielder

6.54

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

B. Gruda

Midfielder

6.44

1 matches · 20 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Vandevoordt

Goalkeeper

5.94

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

Ø. Nyland

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.