Away team to score 1+ goals
85.8%
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- Sample
- 15 matches/team
- Model
- radaronze-v1
Model factors
League average — goals: 3.09
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 2.09 × 2.03
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1501 × 1525
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 60.7
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 15 / 19
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: not used
Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.
Model expected goals: 2.09 × 2.03
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Signal consensus: 85.7
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.
Understand this analysisStructured analysis
Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 85.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.
League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.09 × 2.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)
No current market price is available for this signal.
The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.