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Atletico Madrid vs Fenerbahçe: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Metropolitano Stadium · Referee: not provided

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

26 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSFenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe

20 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

77.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 77.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

60.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 60.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

75.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 75.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

79.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 79.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

46.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 66.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 46.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

36.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

38.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.51 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.51 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 61

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Atletico Madrid recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Fenerbahçe's 10-match sample contains 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Atletico Madrid at home with 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 8 matches, averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded. Away from home, Fenerbahçe has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 5 matches, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Atletico Madrid's sample and 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Fenerbahçe's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 10 matches (70%) and 2 of 10 matches (20%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.90 per match for Atletico Madrid and 12.90 for Fenerbahçe. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 5.50, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Atletico Madrid

5 matches
LLDLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
6

Last 5

Fenerbahçe

5 matches
DWDWW
W
3
D
2
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 10

Atletico Madrid

10 matches
LLDLWLWWDL
W
3
D
2
L
5
GF
20
GA
17

Last 10

Fenerbahçe

10 matches
DWDWWDWLDW
W
5
D
4
L
1
GF
14
GA
7

Last 17

Atletico Madrid

17 matches
LLDLWLWWDLDWWWLWL
W
7
D
3
L
7
GF
36
GA
30

Last 11

Fenerbahçe

11 matches
DWDWWDWLDWL
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
15
GA
9

Season

Atletico Madrid

17 matches
LLDLWLWWDLDWWWLWL
W
7
D
3
L
7
GF
36
GA
30

Season

Fenerbahçe

11 matches
DWDWWDWLDWL
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
15
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Atletico Madrid

2.00 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

1.40 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Atletico Madrid

1.70 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

0.70 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Atletico Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Atletico Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Atletico Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Atletico Madrid

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Atletico Madrid

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Atletico Madrid

4.70 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

4.70 · 10 matches

Average against

Atletico Madrid

4.50 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

4.30 · 10 matches

Total average

Atletico Madrid

9.20 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

9.00 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Atletico Madrid

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Atletico Madrid

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Atletico Madrid

1.50 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

3.00 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Atletico Madrid

2.10 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

2.44 · 9 matches

Total average

Atletico Madrid

3.60 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

5.44 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Atletico Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Atletico Madrid

10.70 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

14.90 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Atletico Madrid

9.10 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

13.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Atletico Madrid

19.80 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

28.60 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Atletico Madrid

13.90 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

12.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Atletico Madrid

4.80 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

5.50 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Atletico Madrid

13.90 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

11.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Atletico Madrid

6.30 · 10 matches

Fenerbahçe

3.80 · 10 matches

Average xG

Atletico Madrid

1.80 · 9 matches

Fenerbahçe

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Atletico Madrid

1.80 · 9 matches

Fenerbahçe

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Atletico Madrid at home × Fenerbahçe away

Atletico Madrid at home

Atletico Madrid

8 matches
DLWWLWWW
W
5
D
1
L
2
GF
22
GA
11

Fenerbahçe away

Fenerbahçe

5 matches
WWDLL
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
5
GA
5
Average goals scored

Atletico Madrid at home

2.75 · 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

1.00 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Atletico Madrid at home

1.38 · 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Atletico Madrid at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Atletico Madrid at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid at home

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Atletico Madrid at home

50% · 4 of 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Atletico Madrid at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Atletico Madrid at home

0% · 0 of 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Atletico Madrid at home

0% · 0 of 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Total corner average

Atletico Madrid at home

8.88 · 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

10.80 · 5 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Atletico Madrid at home

50% · 4 of 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Total card average

Atletico Madrid at home

2.75 · 8 matches

Fenerbahçe away

5.40 · 5 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Atletico Madrid

J. Álvarez

Forward

7.51

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

Marcos Llorente

Midfielder

7.44

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

C. Romero

Centre-back

6.95

1 matches · 77 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Pablo Barrios

Midfielder

6.81

1 matches · 77 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Álex Grimaldo

Centre-back

6.72

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Oblak

Goalkeeper

6.09

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

J. Musso

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Fenerbahçe

M. Greenwood

Midfielder

6.92

7 matches · 449 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 11 shots on target

A. Brown

Centre-back

7.29

5 matches · 423 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Aktürkoğlu

Midfielder

6.80

6 matches · 462 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 8 of 8 shots on target

V. Muriqi

Forward

6.77

4 matches · 250 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 5 shots on target

Marco Asensio

Midfielder

6.76

5 matches · 215 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Günok

Goalkeeper

5.66

5 matches · 363 min

9 saves · 1 goals conceded

Ederson

Goalkeeper

6.87

3 matches · 270 min

11 saves · 2 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.