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AS Roma vs Lille: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Stadio Olimpico · Referee: not provided

AS Roma

AS Roma

17 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

VSLille

Lille

22 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

60.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 60.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

82.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 82.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

51.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 32.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 51.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

25.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

51.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.90 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1502 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.90 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, AS Roma recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Lille's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of AS Roma's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Lille's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 0 of 1 matches (0%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 8.00 per match for AS Roma and 6.00 for Lille. On target, the averages are 3.00 and 2.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 5

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 1

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 1

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Season

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Season

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

AS Roma

3.00 · 1 match

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

AS Roma

4.00 · 1 match

Lille

10.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

AS Roma

2.00 · 1 match

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

AS Roma

4.00 · 1 match

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

AS Roma

6.00 · 1 match

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

AS Roma

19.00 · 1 match

Lille

11.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

AS Roma

12.00 · 1 match

Lille

13.00 · 1 match

Total average

AS Roma

31.00 · 1 match

Lille

24.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

AS Roma

8.00 · 1 match

Lille

6.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

AS Roma

3.00 · 1 match

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

AS Roma

11.00 · 1 match

Lille

20.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

AS Roma

5.00 · 1 match

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Average xG

AS Roma

Insufficient data

Lille

Insufficient data

Average xG against

AS Roma

Insufficient data

Lille

Insufficient data

Home vs away

AS Roma at home × Lille away

AS Roma at home

AS Roma

0 matches

Insufficient data

Lille away

Lille

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

AS Roma at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Lille away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

AS Roma at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Lille away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Total card average

AS Roma at home

Insufficient data

Lille away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

AS Roma

B. Cristante

Midfielder

8.08

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

D. Malen

Forward

6.96

1 matches · 87 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

M. Koné

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 53 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

E. Ndicka

Centre-back

6.78

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Pisilli

Midfielder

6.75

1 matches · 37 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Svilar

Goalkeeper

7.72

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

P. Gollini

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Lille

Alexsandro Ribeiro

Centre-back

7.59

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Ueda

Forward

7.57

1 matches · 77 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Perrin

Forward

6.47

1 matches · 61 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Mbappé

Midfielder

5.25

1 matches · 56 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Tiago Santos

Centre-back

6.59

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

B. Özer

Goalkeeper

5.80

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

O. Gill

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Both histories show a high frequency of five or more cards.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.