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Arsenal vs Sabah FA: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 8

· LONDON TIME · Emirates Stadium · Referee: not provided

Arsenal

Arsenal

15 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSSabah FA

Sabah FA

34 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

65.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 40.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 65.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

50.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 88.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 50.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 79.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

94.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 94.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

77.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 77.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

55.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 55.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

19.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 79.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

57.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 0.94

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 0.94

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Arsenal recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Sabah FA's 9-match sample contains 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 1.78 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Arsenal at home with 6 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 7 matches, averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.43 goals conceded. Away from home, Sabah FA has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 5 matches, with 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Arsenal's sample and 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Sabah FA's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 10 matches (20%) and 6 of 9 matches (67%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.90 per match for Arsenal and 18.00 for Sabah FA. On target, the averages are 4.90 and 6.17, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
4
GA
2

Last 5

Sabah FA

5 matches
LWLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
9
GA
10

Last 10

Arsenal

10 matches
WDWDDWWDWW
W
6
D
4
L
0
GF
14
GA
6

Last 9

Sabah FA

9 matches
LWLWLWWWW
W
6
D
0
L
3
GF
16
GA
11

Last 16

Arsenal

16 matches
WDWDDWWDWWWWWWWW
W
12
D
4
L
0
GF
31
GA
7

Last 9

Sabah FA

9 matches
LWLWLWWWW
W
6
D
0
L
3
GF
16
GA
11

Season

Arsenal

16 matches
WDWDDWWDWWWWWWWW
W
12
D
4
L
0
GF
31
GA
7

Season

Sabah FA

9 matches
LWLWLWWWW
W
6
D
0
L
3
GF
16
GA
11

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Arsenal

1.40 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

1.78 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal

0.60 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

1.22 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Arsenal

5.80 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

5.00 · 6 matches

Average against

Arsenal

3.90 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

4.33 · 6 matches

Total average

Arsenal

9.70 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

9.33 · 6 matches

Over 7.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 8.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 9.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 10.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 11.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Arsenal

1.20 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

1.00 · 6 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

1.70 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

3.00 · 6 matches

Total average

Arsenal

2.90 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

4.00 · 6 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Over 4.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Over 5.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Sabah FA

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Arsenal

11.10 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

12.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

10.10 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

12.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Arsenal

21.20 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

24.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Arsenal

14.90 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

18.00 · 6 matches

Average shots on target

Arsenal

4.90 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

6.17 · 6 matches

Average shots conceded

Arsenal

11.30 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

14.50 · 6 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Arsenal

3.00 · 10 matches

Sabah FA

5.67 · 6 matches

Average xG

Arsenal

1.68 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Arsenal

1.08 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Arsenal at home × Sabah FA away

Arsenal at home

Arsenal

7 matches
WDWWWWW
W
6
D
1
L
0
GF
15
GA
3

Sabah FA away

Sabah FA

5 matches
LLLWW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
9
Average goals scored

Arsenal at home

2.14 · 7 matches

Sabah FA away

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal at home

0.43 · 7 matches

Sabah FA away

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Sabah FA away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal at home

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Sabah FA away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Sabah FA away

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Sabah FA away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal at home

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Sabah FA away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal at home

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Sabah FA away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal at home

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Sabah FA away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Total corner average

Arsenal at home

9.86 · 7 matches

Sabah FA away

7.75 · 4 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Arsenal at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Sabah FA away

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Total card average

Arsenal at home

2.57 · 7 matches

Sabah FA away

3.00 · 4 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Arsenal

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

C. Tzolis

Forward

6.75

1 matches · 24 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.30

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. White

Centre-back

7.24

1 matches · 82 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Bruno Guimarães

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 25 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

7.46

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

I. Meslier

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Sabah FA

J. Mickels

Forward

5.95

6 matches · 552 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 8 of 21 shots on target

V. Simić

Forward

6.41

6 matches · 512 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

A. Isaev

Midfielder

5.88

6 matches · 401 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

T. Puchacz

Centre-back

5.63

6 matches · 545 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 0 of 5 shots on target

U. Rahmonaliyev

Midfielder

5.90

6 matches · 516 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

S. Pokatilov

Goalkeeper

5.61

6 matches · 575 min

18 saves · 6 goals conceded

A. Ramazanov

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.