RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Sporting CP vs Barcelona: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Stadium not provided · Referee: not provided

Sporting CP

Sporting CP

7 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

VSBarcelona

Barcelona

3 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

83.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 83.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

68.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 80.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 68.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

86.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 86.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

53.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 53.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

38.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

38.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.79 × 1.79

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1546

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.79 × 1.79

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 46

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Sporting CP recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Barcelona's 10-match sample contains 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 2.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Sporting CP at home with 6 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 7 matches, averaging 2.43 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded. Away from home, Barcelona has 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 6 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Sporting CP's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Barcelona's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 10 matches (70%) and 8 of 10 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 12.00 per match for Sporting CP and 17.90 for Barcelona. On target, the averages are 4.70 and 7.90, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Sporting CP

5 matches
WDLWL
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
6
GA
5

Last 5

Barcelona

5 matches
WWLWD
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
15
GA
7

Last 10

Sporting CP

10 matches
WDLWLWWLWD
W
5
D
2
L
3
GF
16
GA
12

Last 10

Barcelona

10 matches
WWLWDWWWLD
W
6
D
2
L
2
GF
28
GA
17

Last 13

Sporting CP

13 matches
WDLWLWWLWDWLW
W
7
D
2
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Last 13

Barcelona

13 matches
WWLWDWWWLDWLW
W
8
D
2
L
3
GF
37
GA
21

Season

Sporting CP

13 matches
WDLWLWWLWDWLW
W
7
D
2
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Season

Barcelona

13 matches
WWLWDWWWLDWLW
W
8
D
2
L
3
GF
37
GA
21

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Sporting CP

1.60 · 10 matches

Barcelona

2.80 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Sporting CP

1.20 · 10 matches

Barcelona

1.70 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Sporting CP

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Barcelona

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Sporting CP

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Barcelona

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Sporting CP

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Barcelona

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Barcelona

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Barcelona

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Sporting CP

4.30 · 10 matches

Barcelona

4.70 · 10 matches

Average against

Sporting CP

5.50 · 10 matches

Barcelona

2.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Sporting CP

9.80 · 10 matches

Barcelona

7.20 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Sporting CP

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Barcelona

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Sporting CP

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Sporting CP

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Barcelona

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Sporting CP

2.00 · 10 matches

Barcelona

1.80 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Sporting CP

2.20 · 10 matches

Barcelona

1.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Sporting CP

4.20 · 10 matches

Barcelona

3.50 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Sporting CP

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Barcelona

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Barcelona

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Sporting CP

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Barcelona

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Sporting CP

10.80 · 10 matches

Barcelona

9.30 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Sporting CP

12.70 · 10 matches

Barcelona

13.10 · 10 matches

Total average

Sporting CP

23.50 · 10 matches

Barcelona

22.40 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Sporting CP

12.00 · 10 matches

Barcelona

17.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Sporting CP

4.70 · 10 matches

Barcelona

7.90 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Sporting CP

13.80 · 10 matches

Barcelona

9.70 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Sporting CP

4.30 · 10 matches

Barcelona

3.80 · 10 matches

Average xG

Sporting CP

1.15 · 9 matches

Barcelona

2.04 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Sporting CP

1.30 · 9 matches

Barcelona

1.32 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Sporting CP at home × Barcelona away

Sporting CP at home

Sporting CP

7 matches
WLWWWWW
W
6
D
0
L
1
GF
17
GA
5

Barcelona away

Barcelona

6 matches
WDWLDW
W
3
D
2
L
1
GF
12
GA
11
Average goals scored

Sporting CP at home

2.43 · 7 matches

Barcelona away

2.00 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Sporting CP at home

0.71 · 7 matches

Barcelona away

1.83 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Sporting CP at home

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Barcelona away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Sporting CP at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Barcelona away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Sporting CP at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Barcelona away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Sporting CP at home

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Barcelona away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Sporting CP at home

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Barcelona away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Sporting CP at home

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Barcelona away

0% · 0 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Sporting CP at home

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Barcelona away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Total corner average

Sporting CP at home

9.57 · 7 matches

Barcelona away

7.50 · 6 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Sporting CP at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Barcelona away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Total card average

Sporting CP at home

4.86 · 7 matches

Barcelona away

3.50 · 6 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Sporting CP

Geny Catamo

Midfielder

7.56

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

L. Suárez

Forward

7.14

1 matches · 74 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

R. Zalazar

Midfielder

6.91

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Eduardo Quaresma

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 84 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Araújo

Centre-back

6.75

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Rui Silva

Goalkeeper

7.08

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kaique

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Barcelona

Lamine Yamal

Forward

9.60

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Raphinha

Forward

9.87

1 matches · 71 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Gabriel Jesus

Forward

7.83

1 matches · 7 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Pedri

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 63 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

K. Adeyemi

Forward

7.66

1 matches · 63 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Joan García

Goalkeeper

6.60

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

W. Szczęsny

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.