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Real Madrid vs Lask Linz: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Stadium not provided · Referee: not provided

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

14 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSLask Linz

Lask Linz

28 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

62.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 20.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 62.8%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

59.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 85.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 59.2%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 72.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.5%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.2%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

82.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 82.6%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

62.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 62.8%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

21.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 72.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

57.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.16

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.16

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Real Madrid recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats and averaged 2.30 goals scored per match. Lask Linz's 3-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 2 defeats, with 1.33 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Real Madrid at home with 6 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 8 matches, averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Lask Linz has 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 2 matches, with 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Real Madrid's sample and 1 of 3 matches (33%) of Lask Linz's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 9 of 10 matches (90%) and 2 of 3 matches (67%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.10 per match for Real Madrid and 23.67 for Lask Linz. On target, the averages are 5.90 and 6.33, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Real Madrid

5 matches
WLLWW
W
3
D
0
L
2
GF
11
GA
8

Last 5

Lask Linz

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 10

Real Madrid

10 matches
WLLWWWWLWL
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Last 3

Lask Linz

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Last 15

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Last 3

Lask Linz

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Season

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Season

Lask Linz

3 matches
LWL
W
1
D
0
L
2
GF
4
GA
5

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Real Madrid

2.30 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

1.33 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Real Madrid

1.60 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

1.67 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Real Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Real Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Real Madrid

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Real Madrid

4.90 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

5.33 · 3 matches

Average against

Real Madrid

7.50 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

6.67 · 3 matches

Total average

Real Madrid

12.40 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

12.00 · 3 matches

Over 7.5

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 8.5

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 9.5

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Over 10.5

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 11.5

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Real Madrid

2.90 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

1.67 · 3 matches

Opponent average

Real Madrid

2.20 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

0.67 · 3 matches

Total average

Real Madrid

5.10 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

2.33 · 3 matches

Over 2.5

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Over 4.5

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Over 5.5

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Lask Linz

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Real Madrid

11.70 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

14.67 · 3 matches

Opponent average

Real Madrid

10.60 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

9.00 · 3 matches

Total average

Real Madrid

22.30 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

23.67 · 3 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Real Madrid

16.10 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

23.67 · 3 matches

Average shots on target

Real Madrid

5.90 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

6.33 · 3 matches

Average shots conceded

Real Madrid

16.80 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

14.33 · 3 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Real Madrid

6.90 · 10 matches

Lask Linz

4.67 · 3 matches

Average xG

Real Madrid

2.08 · 9 matches

Lask Linz

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Real Madrid

1.87 · 9 matches

Lask Linz

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Real Madrid at home × Lask Linz away

Real Madrid at home

Real Madrid

8 matches
WLWWWLWW
W
6
D
0
L
2
GF
18
GA
8

Lask Linz away

Lask Linz

2 matches
LL
W
0
D
0
L
2
GF
0
GA
4
Average goals scored

Real Madrid at home

2.25 · 8 matches

Lask Linz away

0.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Real Madrid at home

1.00 · 8 matches

Lask Linz away

2.00 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Real Madrid at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Lask Linz away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Real Madrid at home

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Lask Linz away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Real Madrid at home

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Lask Linz away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Real Madrid at home

13% · 1 of 8 matches

Lask Linz away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Real Madrid at home

75% · 6 of 8 matches

Lask Linz away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Real Madrid at home

25% · 2 of 8 matches

Lask Linz away

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Real Madrid at home

0% · 0 of 8 matches

Lask Linz away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Real Madrid at home

13.88 · 8 matches

Lask Linz away

10.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Real Madrid at home

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Lask Linz away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Real Madrid at home

3.75 · 8 matches

Lask Linz away

2.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Real Madrid

F. Valverde

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Kylian Mbappé

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 89 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 4 shots on target

Brahim Díaz

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 79 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Marc Cucurella

Centre-back

7.13

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Bellingham

Midfielder

6.87

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

T. Courtois

Goalkeeper

7.90

1 matches · 90 min

7 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Lunin

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Lask Linz

M. Usor

Forward

7.21

3 matches · 262 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

S. Adeniran

Forward

7.00

2 matches · 210 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 6 of 12 shots on target

S. Horvath

Midfielder

6.95

3 matches · 279 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 7 shots on target

R. Ljubičić

Midfielder

6.69

3 matches · 236 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

F. Flecker

Midfielder

6.55

2 matches · 39 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

L. Jungwirth

Goalkeeper

6.52

3 matches · 300 min

8 saves · 4 goals conceded

T. Schützenauer

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.