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RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Red Bull Arena · Referee: not provided

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

32 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -3

VSShakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk

18 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 78.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

61.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 61.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

82.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 82.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

46.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 48.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 46.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

33.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

43.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.70 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1492 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.70 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, RB Leipzig recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Shakhtar Donetsk's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats, with 1.00 goal scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of RB Leipzig's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Shakhtar Donetsk's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 0 of 1 matches (0%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.00 per match for RB Leipzig and 8.00 for Shakhtar Donetsk. On target, the averages are 4.00 and 2.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Last 5

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 1

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 1

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Season

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Season

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

RB Leipzig

1.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

RB Leipzig

4.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

RB Leipzig

5.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Average against

RB Leipzig

1.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

RB Leipzig

6.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

RB Leipzig

3.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

RB Leipzig

2.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

RB Leipzig

5.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

9.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

RB Leipzig

10.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

15.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

RB Leipzig

9.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

14.00 · 1 match

Total average

RB Leipzig

19.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

29.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

RB Leipzig

14.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

8.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

RB Leipzig

4.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

RB Leipzig

14.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

10.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

RB Leipzig

6.00 · 1 match

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Average xG

RB Leipzig

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Average xG against

RB Leipzig

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Home vs away

RB Leipzig at home × Shakhtar Donetsk away

RB Leipzig at home

RB Leipzig

0 matches

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1
Average goals scored

RB Leipzig at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

RB Leipzig at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

6.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total card average

RB Leipzig at home

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk away

9.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

RB Leipzig

A. Maksimović

Midfielder

7.18

1 matches · 70 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

C. Nkunku

Midfielder

7.09

1 matches · 60 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

T. Gomis

Forward

6.58

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

A. Nusa

Midfielder

6.54

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

B. Gruda

Midfielder

6.44

1 matches · 20 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Vandevoordt

Goalkeeper

5.94

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

Ø. Nyland

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

G. Mendoza

Midfielder

7.17

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Pedrinho

Centre-back

6.79

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

V. Bondar

Centre-back

6.69

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

L. Traoré

Forward

6.62

1 matches · 24 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Marlon Gomes

Midfielder

6.53

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

D. Riznyk

Goalkeeper

5.86

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Fesyun

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Both histories show a high frequency of five or more cards.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.