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Manchester United vs Bayern München: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Old Trafford · Referee: not provided

Manchester United

Manchester United

4 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 4

VSBayern München

Bayern München

2 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

89.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 89.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

68.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 60.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 68.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

88.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 88.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

53.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 50.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 53.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

46.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 39.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

31.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.67 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.67 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 19.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Manchester United recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 4.00 goals scored per match. Bayern München's 10-match sample contains 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 3.30 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester United at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, averaging 4.00 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Bayern München has 5 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 7 matches, with 3.14 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 0 of 1 matches (0%) of Manchester United's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Bayern München's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 8 of 10 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 21.00 per match for Manchester United and 19.80 for Bayern München. On target, the averages are 10.00 and 8.50, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 5

Bayern München

5 matches
WDLWW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
10

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 10

Bayern München

10 matches
WDLWWWWWWW
W
8
D
1
L
1
GF
33
GA
14

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 15

Bayern München

15 matches
WDLWWWWWWWLWWWW
W
12
D
1
L
2
GF
48
GA
20

Season

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Season

Bayern München

15 matches
WDLWWWWWWWLWWWW
W
12
D
1
L
2
GF
48
GA
20

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester United

4.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

3.30 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

1.40 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester United

7.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

5.90 · 10 matches

Average against

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

3.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Manchester United

9.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

9.60 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

2.11 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

2.89 · 9 matches

Total average

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

5.00 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester United

12.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

9.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Manchester United

13.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

9.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Manchester United

25.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

19.20 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester United

21.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

19.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester United

10.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

8.50 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester United

11.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

10.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

Bayern München

4.50 · 10 matches

Average xG

Manchester United

Insufficient data

Bayern München

2.78 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Manchester United

Insufficient data

Bayern München

1.47 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Manchester United at home × Bayern München away

Manchester United at home

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Bayern München away

Bayern München

7 matches
LWWWLWW
W
5
D
0
L
2
GF
22
GA
13
Average goals scored

Manchester United at home

4.00 · 1 match

Bayern München away

3.14 · 7 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester United at home

0.00 · 1 match

Bayern München away

1.86 · 7 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

0% · 0 of 7 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

0% · 0 of 7 matches

Total corner average

Manchester United at home

9.00 · 1 match

Bayern München away

10.14 · 7 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bayern München away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Total card average

Manchester United at home

2.00 · 1 match

Bayern München away

4.29 · 7 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester United

Matheus Cunha

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Lisandro Martínez

Centre-back

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

P. Dorgu

Centre-back

7.87

1 matches · 72 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. Šeško

Forward

7.84

1 matches · 64 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

6.66

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bayern München

M. Olise

Midfielder

9.66

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

H. Kane

Forward

8.51

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

A. Davies

Centre-back

7.90

1 matches · 80 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

J. Musiala

Midfielder

7.86

1 matches · 65 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

L. Karl

Midfielder

6.71

1 matches · 10 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Neuer

Goalkeeper

6.83

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

S. Ulreich

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.