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Lille vs Slovan Bratislava: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Stade Pierre-Mauroy · Referee: not provided

Lille

Lille

22 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSSlovan Bratislava

Slovan Bratislava

35 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

80.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 76.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 80.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

62.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 83.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 62.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

82.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 82.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

52.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 47.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 52.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

36.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

39.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.64 × 1.55

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1488 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.64 × 1.55

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Lille recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Slovan Bratislava's 10-match sample contains 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats, with 1.30 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Lille at home with 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 1 match, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Slovan Bratislava has 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Lille's sample and 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Slovan Bratislava's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 3 of 10 matches (30%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 6.00 per match for Lille and 14.00 for Slovan Bratislava. On target, the averages are 2.00 and 4.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 5

Slovan Bratislava

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
7
GA
9

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 10

Slovan Bratislava

10 matches
LDDWWDWWLD
W
4
D
4
L
2
GF
13
GA
13

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 11

Slovan Bratislava

11 matches
LDDWWDWWLDW
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
17
GA
13

Season

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Season

Slovan Bratislava

11 matches
LDDWWDWWLDW
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
17
GA
13

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

1.30 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

1.30 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

4.40 · 5 matches

Average against

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

4.20 · 5 matches

Total average

Lille

10.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

8.60 · 5 matches

Over 7.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 8.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 9.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 10.5

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 11.5

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

2.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

2.80 · 5 matches

Total average

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

5.60 · 5 matches

Over 2.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 4.5

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 5.5

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Lille

11.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

14.80 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Lille

13.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

13.60 · 5 matches

Total average

Lille

24.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

28.40 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Lille

6.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

14.00 · 4 matches

Average shots on target

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

4.00 · 5 matches

Average shots conceded

Lille

20.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

19.25 · 4 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava

6.60 · 5 matches

Average xG

Lille

Insufficient data

Slovan Bratislava

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Lille

Insufficient data

Slovan Bratislava

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Lille at home × Slovan Bratislava away

Lille at home

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Slovan Bratislava away

Slovan Bratislava

6 matches
LDWWLD
W
2
D
2
L
2
GF
8
GA
11
Average goals scored

Lille at home

2.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava away

1.33 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Lille at home

3.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava away

1.83 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Lille at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Lille at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Total corner average

Lille at home

10.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava away

11.00 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Lille at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Slovan Bratislava away

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Total card average

Lille at home

5.00 · 1 match

Slovan Bratislava away

4.00 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Lille

Alexsandro Ribeiro

Centre-back

7.59

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Ueda

Forward

7.57

1 matches · 77 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Perrin

Forward

6.47

1 matches · 61 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Mbappé

Midfielder

5.25

1 matches · 56 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Tiago Santos

Centre-back

6.59

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

B. Özer

Goalkeeper

5.80

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

O. Gill

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Slovan Bratislava

Cristian Jesús Martínez

Midfielder

7.32

3 matches · 269 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

T. Barseghyan

Midfielder

7.19

3 matches · 217 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Suleiman Camara

Forward

6.89

3 matches · 263 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

K. Bajrič

Centre-back

6.89

3 matches · 232 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

A. Šporar

Forward

6.79

3 matches · 175 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

D. Takáč

Goalkeeper

6.61

3 matches · 300 min

16 saves · 2 goals conceded

A. Popović

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.