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Inter vs Liverpool: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Stadium not provided · Referee: not provided

Inter

Inter

25 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSLiverpool

Liverpool

13 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

77.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 69.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 77.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

58.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 76.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 58.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

75.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 59.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 75.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

80.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 80.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

42.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 42.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

41.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 59.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

34.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.41 × 1.58

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.41 × 1.58

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 32.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Inter recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Liverpool's 10-match sample contains 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 1.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Inter at home with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 5 matches, averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded. Away from home, Liverpool has 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Inter's sample and 2 of 10 matches (20%) of Liverpool's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of 10 matches (80%) and 5 of 10 matches (50%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 18.70 per match for Inter and 19.00 for Liverpool. On target, the averages are 5.70 and 7.10, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Inter

5 matches
LLLWL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WLLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
6

Last 10

Inter

10 matches
LLLWLLLWWW
W
4
D
0
L
6
GF
16
GA
14

Last 10

Liverpool

10 matches
WLLWLWWWLW
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
18
GA
10

Last 11

Inter

11 matches
LLLWLLLWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
6
GF
18
GA
14

Last 13

Liverpool

13 matches
WLLWLWWWLWWLW
W
8
D
0
L
5
GF
26
GA
14

Season

Inter

11 matches
LLLWLLLWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
6
GF
18
GA
14

Season

Liverpool

13 matches
WLLWLWWWLWWLW
W
8
D
0
L
5
GF
26
GA
14

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Inter

1.60 · 10 matches

Liverpool

1.80 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Inter

1.40 · 10 matches

Liverpool

1.00 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Inter

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Liverpool

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Inter

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Liverpool

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Inter

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Inter

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Inter

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Liverpool

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Inter

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Inter

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Inter

6.70 · 10 matches

Liverpool

6.20 · 10 matches

Average against

Inter

3.60 · 10 matches

Liverpool

3.90 · 10 matches

Total average

Inter

10.30 · 10 matches

Liverpool

10.10 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Inter

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Liverpool

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Inter

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Liverpool

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Inter

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Liverpool

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Inter

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Inter

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Inter

1.60 · 10 matches

Liverpool

1.44 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Inter

1.10 · 10 matches

Liverpool

1.22 · 9 matches

Total average

Inter

2.70 · 10 matches

Liverpool

2.67 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Inter

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Inter

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Inter

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Inter

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Liverpool

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Inter

10.00 · 10 matches

Liverpool

12.60 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Inter

13.30 · 10 matches

Liverpool

9.10 · 10 matches

Total average

Inter

23.30 · 10 matches

Liverpool

21.70 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Inter

18.70 · 10 matches

Liverpool

19.00 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Inter

5.70 · 10 matches

Liverpool

7.10 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Inter

10.90 · 10 matches

Liverpool

10.40 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Inter

4.70 · 10 matches

Liverpool

3.60 · 10 matches

Average xG

Inter

2.11 · 9 matches

Liverpool

2.46 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Inter

1.06 · 9 matches

Liverpool

1.03 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Inter at home × Liverpool away

Inter at home

Inter

5 matches
LLLWW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
7

Liverpool away

Liverpool

6 matches
LLWWWL
W
3
D
0
L
3
GF
9
GA
5
Average goals scored

Inter at home

1.40 · 5 matches

Liverpool away

1.50 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Inter at home

1.40 · 5 matches

Liverpool away

0.83 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Inter at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Liverpool away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Inter at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Liverpool away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Inter at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Liverpool away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Inter at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Liverpool away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Inter at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Liverpool away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Inter at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Liverpool away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Inter at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Liverpool away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Total corner average

Inter at home

10.80 · 5 matches

Liverpool away

9.50 · 6 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Inter at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Liverpool away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Total card average

Inter at home

3.00 · 5 matches

Liverpool away

3.83 · 6 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Inter

Carlos Augusto

Centre-back

8.20

1 matches · 83 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Lautaro Martínez

Forward

7.52

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

H. Çalhanoğlu

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 60 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

N. Barella

Midfielder

7.11

1 matches · 60 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

P. Sučić

Midfielder

7.03

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Josep Martínez

Goalkeeper

7.60

1 matches · 90 min

6 saves · 0 goals conceded

R. Di Gennaro

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Liverpool

D. Szoboszlai

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Mac Allister

Midfielder

7.60

1 matches · 69 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Isak

Forward

6.91

1 matches · 88 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

R. Araújo

Centre-back

6.67

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Víctor Muñoz

Forward

7.01

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Alisson Becker

Goalkeeper

6.84

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

G. Mamardashvili

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Inter 0 × 1 Liverpool1451113
Average goals
1.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
0% · 0 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
0% · 0 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 9.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.