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Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu · Referee: not provided

Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe

20 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

VSVillarreal

Villarreal

21 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

55.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 71.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 55.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

50.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 88.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 50.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 91.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

94.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 94.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

77.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 77.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

53.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 22.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 53.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

16.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 91.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

62.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.99 × 0.85

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.99 × 0.85

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 54

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Fenerbahçe recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Villarreal's 9-match sample contains 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats, with 0.78 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Fenerbahçe at home with 3 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in 6 matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Away from home, Villarreal has 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in 5 matches, with 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Fenerbahçe's sample and 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Villarreal's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 10 matches (20%) and 6 of 9 matches (67%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 12.90 per match for Fenerbahçe and 13.56 for Villarreal. On target, the averages are 5.50 and 4.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Fenerbahçe

5 matches
DWDWW
W
3
D
2
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 5

Villarreal

5 matches
LLLLL
W
0
D
0
L
5
GF
5
GA
15

Last 10

Fenerbahçe

10 matches
DWDWWDWLDW
W
5
D
4
L
1
GF
14
GA
7

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Last 11

Fenerbahçe

11 matches
DWDWWDWLDWL
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
15
GA
9

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Season

Fenerbahçe

11 matches
DWDWWDWLDWL
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
15
GA
9

Season

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Fenerbahçe

1.40 · 10 matches

Villarreal

0.78 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

Fenerbahçe

0.70 · 10 matches

Villarreal

2.33 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

Fenerbahçe

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Villarreal

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

Fenerbahçe

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Villarreal

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

Fenerbahçe

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Fenerbahçe

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

Fenerbahçe

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Villarreal

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Failed to score

Fenerbahçe

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Villarreal

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Fenerbahçe

4.70 · 10 matches

Villarreal

3.78 · 9 matches

Average against

Fenerbahçe

4.30 · 10 matches

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Total average

Fenerbahçe

9.00 · 10 matches

Villarreal

7.78 · 9 matches

Over 7.5

Fenerbahçe

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 8.5

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 9.5

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 10.5

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Over 11.5

Fenerbahçe

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Fenerbahçe

3.00 · 9 matches

Villarreal

2.56 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Fenerbahçe

2.44 · 9 matches

Villarreal

1.78 · 9 matches

Total average

Fenerbahçe

5.44 · 9 matches

Villarreal

4.33 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Fenerbahçe

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Villarreal

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Fenerbahçe

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Fenerbahçe

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Fenerbahçe

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Fenerbahçe

14.90 · 10 matches

Villarreal

12.44 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Fenerbahçe

13.70 · 10 matches

Villarreal

13.78 · 9 matches

Total average

Fenerbahçe

28.60 · 10 matches

Villarreal

26.22 · 9 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Fenerbahçe

12.90 · 10 matches

Villarreal

13.56 · 9 matches

Average shots on target

Fenerbahçe

5.50 · 10 matches

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Average shots conceded

Fenerbahçe

11.80 · 10 matches

Villarreal

11.78 · 9 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Fenerbahçe

3.80 · 10 matches

Villarreal

4.78 · 9 matches

Average xG

Fenerbahçe

Insufficient data

Villarreal

1.22 · 8 matches

Average xG against

Fenerbahçe

Insufficient data

Villarreal

1.52 · 8 matches

Home vs away

Fenerbahçe at home × Villarreal away

Fenerbahçe at home

Fenerbahçe

6 matches
DDWWDW
W
3
D
3
L
0
GF
10
GA
4

Villarreal away

Villarreal

5 matches
LLLLL
W
0
D
0
L
5
GF
2
GA
12
Average goals scored

Fenerbahçe at home

1.67 · 6 matches

Villarreal away

0.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Fenerbahçe at home

0.67 · 6 matches

Villarreal away

2.40 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Fenerbahçe at home

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Villarreal away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Fenerbahçe at home

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Villarreal away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Fenerbahçe at home

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Villarreal away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Fenerbahçe at home

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Villarreal away

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Fenerbahçe at home

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Villarreal away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Fenerbahçe at home

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Villarreal away

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Fenerbahçe at home

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Villarreal away

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Total corner average

Fenerbahçe at home

7.33 · 6 matches

Villarreal away

7.40 · 5 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Fenerbahçe at home

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Villarreal away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Total card average

Fenerbahçe at home

5.00 · 5 matches

Villarreal away

3.80 · 5 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Fenerbahçe

M. Greenwood

Midfielder

6.92

7 matches · 449 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 11 shots on target

A. Brown

Centre-back

7.29

5 matches · 423 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Aktürkoğlu

Midfielder

6.80

6 matches · 462 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 8 of 8 shots on target

V. Muriqi

Forward

6.77

4 matches · 250 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 5 shots on target

Marco Asensio

Midfielder

6.76

5 matches · 215 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Günok

Goalkeeper

5.66

5 matches · 363 min

9 saves · 1 goals conceded

Ederson

Goalkeeper

6.87

3 matches · 270 min

11 saves · 2 goals conceded

Villarreal

S. Mouriño

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Mikautadze

Forward

6.95

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

T. Buchanan

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

N. Pépé

Forward

6.76

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Freeman

Centre-back

6.56

1 matches · 45 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

P. Gulácsi

Goalkeeper

6.70

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

Rubén Gómez

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.