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Bodo/Glimt vs Atletico Madrid: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Aspmyra Stadion · Referee: not provided

Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt

36 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -5

VSAtletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

26 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

83.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 83.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 17 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

69.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 76.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 69.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 17 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 17 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 17 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

88.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 88.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 17 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

62.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 67.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 62.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 17 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

33.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 98.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

44.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
17 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Bodo/Glimt recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 2.10 goals scored per match. Atletico Madrid's 10-match sample contains 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Bodo/Glimt at home with 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 9 matches, averaging 2.56 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded. Away from home, Atletico Madrid has 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats in 9 matches, with 1.56 goals scored and 2.11 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Bodo/Glimt's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Atletico Madrid's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 10 of 10 matches (100%) and 7 of 10 matches (70%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.60 per match for Bodo/Glimt and 13.90 for Atletico Madrid. On target, the averages are 5.10 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Bodo/Glimt

5 matches
LWWDD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
11
GA
11

Last 5

Atletico Madrid

5 matches
LLDLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
6

Last 10

Bodo/Glimt

10 matches
LWWDDLWWWW
W
6
D
2
L
2
GF
21
GA
17

Last 10

Atletico Madrid

10 matches
LLDLWLWWDL
W
3
D
2
L
5
GF
20
GA
17

Last 19

Bodo/Glimt

19 matches
LWWDDLWWWWWDLLLDDLW
W
8
D
5
L
6
GF
39
GA
33

Last 17

Atletico Madrid

17 matches
LLDLWLWWDLDWWWLWL
W
7
D
3
L
7
GF
36
GA
30

Season

Bodo/Glimt

19 matches
LWWDDLWWWWWDLLLDDLW
W
8
D
5
L
6
GF
39
GA
33

Season

Atletico Madrid

17 matches
LLDLWLWWDLDWWWLWL
W
7
D
3
L
7
GF
36
GA
30

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Bodo/Glimt

2.10 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

2.00 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Bodo/Glimt

1.70 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

1.70 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Bodo/Glimt

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Bodo/Glimt

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Bodo/Glimt

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Bodo/Glimt

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Bodo/Glimt

3.20 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

4.70 · 10 matches

Average against

Bodo/Glimt

7.30 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

4.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Bodo/Glimt

10.50 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

9.20 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Bodo/Glimt

1.70 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

1.50 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Bodo/Glimt

2.20 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

2.10 · 10 matches

Total average

Bodo/Glimt

3.90 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

3.60 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Bodo/Glimt

10.22 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

10.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Bodo/Glimt

9.56 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

9.10 · 10 matches

Total average

Bodo/Glimt

19.78 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

19.80 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Bodo/Glimt

10.60 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

13.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Bodo/Glimt

5.10 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

4.80 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Bodo/Glimt

20.60 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

13.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Bodo/Glimt

6.70 · 10 matches

Atletico Madrid

6.30 · 10 matches

Average xG

Bodo/Glimt

1.63 · 5 matches

Atletico Madrid

1.80 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Bodo/Glimt

2.08 · 5 matches

Atletico Madrid

1.80 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Bodo/Glimt at home × Atletico Madrid away

Bodo/Glimt at home

Bodo/Glimt

9 matches
WDWWWLLDW
W
5
D
2
L
2
GF
23
GA
10

Atletico Madrid away

Atletico Madrid

9 matches
LLWLDDWLL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
14
GA
19
Average goals scored

Bodo/Glimt at home

2.56 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

1.56 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

Bodo/Glimt at home

1.11 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

2.11 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

Bodo/Glimt at home

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

Bodo/Glimt at home

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

Bodo/Glimt at home

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Bodo/Glimt at home

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

Bodo/Glimt at home

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

Bodo/Glimt at home

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Failed to score

Bodo/Glimt at home

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Total corner average

Bodo/Glimt at home

8.89 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

10.67 · 9 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Bodo/Glimt at home

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Total card average

Bodo/Glimt at home

4.00 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid away

4.56 · 9 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Bodo/Glimt

J. Hauge

Midfielder

7.66

4 matches · 293 min

1 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

A. Helmersen

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 301 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 6 of 11 shots on target

S. Auklend

Midfielder

6.81

4 matches · 339 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

O. Didrik Blomberg

Forward

7.48

4 matches · 376 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

P. Berg

Midfielder

7.10

4 matches · 390 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 11 shots on target

N. Haikin

Goalkeeper

6.73

4 matches · 345 min

15 saves · 3 goals conceded

J. Faye Lund

Goalkeeper

4.53

1 matches · 45 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

Atletico Madrid

J. Álvarez

Forward

7.51

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

Marcos Llorente

Midfielder

7.44

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

C. Romero

Centre-back

6.95

1 matches · 77 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Pablo Barrios

Midfielder

6.81

1 matches · 77 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Álex Grimaldo

Centre-back

6.72

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Oblak

Goalkeeper

6.09

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

J. Musso

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Atletico Madrid 1 × 2 Bodo/Glimt1451152
Average goals
3.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
100% · 1 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
100% · 1 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 13.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.