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Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 7

· LONDON TIME · Villa Park · Referee: not provided

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

9 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSBorussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

12 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

80.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 80.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

68.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 65.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 68.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

88.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 88.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

63.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 83.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 63.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.09 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

30.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

48.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.09

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.11 × 1.64

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1504

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.7

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.11 × 1.64

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Aston Villa recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.00 goals scored per match. Borussia Dortmund's 10-match sample contains 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 2.10 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Aston Villa's sample and 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Borussia Dortmund's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 7 of 10 matches (70%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 21.00 per match for Aston Villa and 11.80 for Borussia Dortmund. On target, the averages are 9.00 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 5

Borussia Dortmund

5 matches
WLWLL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 10

Borussia Dortmund

10 matches
WLWLLDWLWW
W
5
D
1
L
4
GF
21
GA
19

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 11

Borussia Dortmund

11 matches
WLWLLDWLWWD
W
5
D
2
L
4
GF
25
GA
23

Season

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Borussia Dortmund

11 matches
WLWLLDWLWWD
W
5
D
2
L
4
GF
25
GA
23

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

2.10 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Aston Villa

2.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

1.90 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Aston Villa

5.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

4.80 · 10 matches

Average against

Aston Villa

4.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

3.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

8.30 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

1.80 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

1.80 · 10 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

6.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

3.60 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Borussia Dortmund

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

12.00 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Aston Villa

17.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

12.20 · 10 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

31.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

24.20 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Aston Villa

21.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

11.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

4.80 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

11.50 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Aston Villa

7.00 · 1 match

Borussia Dortmund

5.10 · 10 matches

Average xG

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund

1.65 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund

1.36 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Aston Villa at home × Borussia Dortmund away

Aston Villa at home

Aston Villa

0 matches

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

Borussia Dortmund

5 matches
LLLWD
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
10
GA
16
Average goals scored

Aston Villa at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Borussia Dortmund away

2.00 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Aston Villa at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Borussia Dortmund away

3.20 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Total corner average

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

7.40 · 5 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Total card average

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Borussia Dortmund away

3.80 · 5 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Aston Villa

Pau Torres

Centre-back

7.80

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 81 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

João Gomes

Midfielder

7.63

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Buendía

Midfielder

7.49

1 matches · 68 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.33

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy

Forward

7.39

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

Fábio Silva

Forward

6.84

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

M. Sabitzer

Midfielder

7.17

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

E. Nwaneri

Midfielder

6.81

1 matches · 55 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 6 shots on target

Kauã Prates

Centre-back

6.75

1 matches · 8 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

G. Kobel

Goalkeeper

7.26

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Meyer

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.