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Villarreal vs Sabah FA: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Estadio de la Ceramica · Referee: not provided

Villarreal

Villarreal

21 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSSabah FA

Sabah FA

34 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

85.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 85.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

60.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 65.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 60.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

84.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 84.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

38.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 38.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

51.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 16.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

26.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.33 × 1.98

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.33 × 1.98

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 9 recent matches, Villarreal recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats and averaged 0.78 goals scored per match. Sabah FA's 9-match sample contains 6 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, with 1.78 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Villarreal at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 4 matches, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 goals conceded. Away from home, Sabah FA has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 5 matches, with 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Villarreal's sample and 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Sabah FA's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 9 matches (67%) and 6 of 9 matches (67%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.56 per match for Villarreal and 18.00 for Sabah FA. On target, the averages are 4.00 and 6.17, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Villarreal

5 matches
LLLLL
W
0
D
0
L
5
GF
5
GA
15

Last 5

Sabah FA

5 matches
LWLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
9
GA
10

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Last 9

Sabah FA

9 matches
LWLWLWWWW
W
6
D
0
L
3
GF
16
GA
11

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Last 9

Sabah FA

9 matches
LWLWLWWWW
W
6
D
0
L
3
GF
16
GA
11

Season

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Season

Sabah FA

9 matches
LWLWLWWWW
W
6
D
0
L
3
GF
16
GA
11

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Villarreal

0.78 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

1.78 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

Villarreal

2.33 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

1.22 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

Villarreal

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

Villarreal

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

Villarreal

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Failed to score

Villarreal

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Villarreal

3.78 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

5.00 · 6 matches

Average against

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

4.33 · 6 matches

Total average

Villarreal

7.78 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

9.33 · 6 matches

Over 7.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 8.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 9.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 10.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 11.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Villarreal

2.56 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

1.00 · 6 matches

Opponent average

Villarreal

1.78 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

3.00 · 6 matches

Total average

Villarreal

4.33 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

4.00 · 6 matches

Over 2.5

Villarreal

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Over 4.5

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Over 5.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Sabah FA

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Villarreal

12.44 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

12.60 · 5 matches

Opponent average

Villarreal

13.78 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

12.00 · 5 matches

Total average

Villarreal

26.22 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

24.60 · 5 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Villarreal

13.56 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

18.00 · 6 matches

Average shots on target

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

6.17 · 6 matches

Average shots conceded

Villarreal

11.78 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

14.50 · 6 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Villarreal

4.78 · 9 matches

Sabah FA

5.67 · 6 matches

Average xG

Villarreal

1.22 · 8 matches

Sabah FA

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Villarreal

1.52 · 8 matches

Sabah FA

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Villarreal at home × Sabah FA away

Villarreal at home

Villarreal

4 matches
LLLD
W
0
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
9

Sabah FA away

Sabah FA

5 matches
LLLWW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
9
Average goals scored

Villarreal at home

1.25 · 4 matches

Sabah FA away

1.20 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Villarreal at home

2.25 · 4 matches

Sabah FA away

1.80 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Villarreal at home

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Sabah FA away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Villarreal at home

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Sabah FA away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Villarreal at home

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Sabah FA away

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Villarreal at home

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Sabah FA away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Villarreal at home

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Sabah FA away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Villarreal at home

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Sabah FA away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Villarreal at home

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Sabah FA away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Total corner average

Villarreal at home

8.25 · 4 matches

Sabah FA away

7.75 · 4 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Villarreal at home

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Sabah FA away

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Total card average

Villarreal at home

5.00 · 4 matches

Sabah FA away

3.00 · 4 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Villarreal

S. Mouriño

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Mikautadze

Forward

6.95

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

T. Buchanan

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

N. Pépé

Forward

6.76

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Freeman

Centre-back

6.56

1 matches · 45 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

P. Gulácsi

Goalkeeper

6.70

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

Rubén Gómez

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Sabah FA

J. Mickels

Forward

5.95

6 matches · 552 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 8 of 21 shots on target

V. Simić

Forward

6.41

6 matches · 512 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

A. Isaev

Midfielder

5.88

6 matches · 401 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

T. Puchacz

Centre-back

5.63

6 matches · 545 min

0 goals · 3 assists · 0 of 5 shots on target

U. Rahmonaliyev

Midfielder

5.90

6 matches · 516 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 10 shots on target

S. Pokatilov

Goalkeeper

5.61

6 matches · 575 min

18 saves · 6 goals conceded

A. Ramazanov

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.