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VfB Stuttgart vs Lille: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · MHPArena · Referee: not provided

VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

6 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

VSLille

Lille

22 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

62.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 62.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

84.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 84.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

64.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 85.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 64.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

22.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

56.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.15 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.15 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, VfB Stuttgart recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.00 goals scored per match. Lille's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of VfB Stuttgart's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Lille's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 17.00 per match for VfB Stuttgart and 6.00 for Lille. On target, the averages are 3.00 and 2.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Last 5

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 1

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 1

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Season

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Season

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

VfB Stuttgart

1.00 · 1 match

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

VfB Stuttgart

4.00 · 1 match

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

VfB Stuttgart

5.00 · 1 match

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

VfB Stuttgart

9.00 · 1 match

Lille

10.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

VfB Stuttgart

0.00 · 1 match

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

VfB Stuttgart

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

VfB Stuttgart

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

VfB Stuttgart

13.00 · 1 match

Lille

11.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

VfB Stuttgart

13.00 · 1 match

Lille

13.00 · 1 match

Total average

VfB Stuttgart

26.00 · 1 match

Lille

24.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

VfB Stuttgart

17.00 · 1 match

Lille

6.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

VfB Stuttgart

9.00 · 1 match

Lille

20.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

VfB Stuttgart

3.00 · 1 match

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Average xG

VfB Stuttgart

Insufficient data

Lille

Insufficient data

Average xG against

VfB Stuttgart

Insufficient data

Lille

Insufficient data

Home vs away

VfB Stuttgart at home × Lille away

VfB Stuttgart at home

VfB Stuttgart

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
1

Lille away

Lille

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

VfB Stuttgart at home

3.00 · 1 match

Lille away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

VfB Stuttgart at home

1.00 · 1 match

Lille away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

VfB Stuttgart at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

VfB Stuttgart at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

VfB Stuttgart at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

VfB Stuttgart at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

VfB Stuttgart at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

VfB Stuttgart at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

VfB Stuttgart at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

VfB Stuttgart at home

9.00 · 1 match

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

VfB Stuttgart at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Total card average

VfB Stuttgart at home

3.00 · 1 match

Lille away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

VfB Stuttgart

E. Demirović

Forward

9.50

1 matches · 62 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

D. Undav

Midfielder

7.97

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

A. Stiller

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Chabot

Centre-back

7.44

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. El Khannouss

Midfielder

6.90

1 matches · 71 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

F. Bredlow

Goalkeeper

6.55

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Funk

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Lille

Alexsandro Ribeiro

Centre-back

7.59

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Ueda

Forward

7.57

1 matches · 77 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Perrin

Forward

6.47

1 matches · 61 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Mbappé

Midfielder

5.25

1 matches · 56 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Tiago Santos

Centre-back

6.59

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

B. Özer

Goalkeeper

5.80

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

O. Gill

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.