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Slovan Bratislava vs Shakhtar Donetsk: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Stadium not provided · Referee: not provided

Slovan Bratislava

Slovan Bratislava

35 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -5

VSShakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk

18 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

67.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 67.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

55.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 55.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

75.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 75.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

94.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 94.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

78.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 79.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 78.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

48.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 48.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

26.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

48.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.13

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1529 × 1501

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.13

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Slovan Bratislava recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 1.30 goals scored per match. Shakhtar Donetsk's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats, with 1.00 goal scored per match.

The venue split shows Slovan Bratislava at home with 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in 5 matches, averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded. Away from home, Shakhtar Donetsk has 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Slovan Bratislava's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Shakhtar Donetsk's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 10 matches (30%) and 0 of 1 matches (0%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.00 per match for Slovan Bratislava and 8.00 for Shakhtar Donetsk. On target, the averages are 4.00 and 2.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Slovan Bratislava

5 matches
LDDWW
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
7
GA
9

Last 5

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 10

Slovan Bratislava

10 matches
LDDWWDWWLD
W
4
D
4
L
2
GF
13
GA
13

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 11

Slovan Bratislava

11 matches
LDDWWDWWLDW
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
17
GA
13

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Season

Slovan Bratislava

11 matches
LDDWWDWWLDW
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
17
GA
13

Season

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Slovan Bratislava

1.30 · 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Slovan Bratislava

1.30 · 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Slovan Bratislava

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Slovan Bratislava

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Slovan Bratislava

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Slovan Bratislava

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Slovan Bratislava

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Slovan Bratislava

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Slovan Bratislava

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Slovan Bratislava

4.40 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Average against

Slovan Bratislava

4.20 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Slovan Bratislava

8.60 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Slovan Bratislava

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Slovan Bratislava

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Slovan Bratislava

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Slovan Bratislava

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Slovan Bratislava

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Slovan Bratislava

2.80 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Slovan Bratislava

2.80 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Slovan Bratislava

5.60 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

9.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Slovan Bratislava

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Slovan Bratislava

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Slovan Bratislava

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Slovan Bratislava

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Slovan Bratislava

14.80 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

15.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Slovan Bratislava

13.60 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

14.00 · 1 match

Total average

Slovan Bratislava

28.40 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

29.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Slovan Bratislava

14.00 · 4 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

8.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Slovan Bratislava

4.00 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Slovan Bratislava

19.25 · 4 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

10.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Slovan Bratislava

6.60 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Slovan Bratislava

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Slovan Bratislava

Insufficient data

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Slovan Bratislava at home × Shakhtar Donetsk away

Slovan Bratislava at home

Slovan Bratislava

5 matches
DWDWW
W
3
D
2
L
0
GF
9
GA
2

Shakhtar Donetsk away

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1
Average goals scored

Slovan Bratislava at home

1.80 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Slovan Bratislava at home

0.40 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Slovan Bratislava at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Slovan Bratislava at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Slovan Bratislava at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Slovan Bratislava at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Slovan Bratislava at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Slovan Bratislava at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Slovan Bratislava at home

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Slovan Bratislava at home

7.00 · 3 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

6.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Slovan Bratislava at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total card average

Slovan Bratislava at home

6.67 · 3 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away

9.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Slovan Bratislava

Cristian Jesús Martínez

Midfielder

7.32

3 matches · 269 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

T. Barseghyan

Midfielder

7.19

3 matches · 217 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Suleiman Camara

Forward

6.89

3 matches · 263 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

K. Bajrič

Centre-back

6.89

3 matches · 232 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

A. Šporar

Forward

6.79

3 matches · 175 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

D. Takáč

Goalkeeper

6.61

3 matches · 300 min

16 saves · 2 goals conceded

A. Popović

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

G. Mendoza

Midfielder

7.17

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Pedrinho

Centre-back

6.79

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

V. Bondar

Centre-back

6.69

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

L. Traoré

Forward

6.62

1 matches · 24 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Marlon Gomes

Midfielder

6.53

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

D. Riznyk

Goalkeeper

5.86

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Fesyun

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.