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PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Philips Stadion · Referee: not provided

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven

19 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

VSAtletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

26 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

83.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 83.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

67.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 67.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

86.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 86.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

48.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 52.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 48.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

38.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 63.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

38.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.75 × 1.73

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1481 × 1507

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 17

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.75 × 1.73

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 65.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 9 recent matches, PSV Eindhoven recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats and averaged 1.89 goals scored per match. Atletico Madrid's 10-match sample contains 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows PSV Eindhoven at home with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 5 matches, averaging 2.20 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded. Away from home, Atletico Madrid has 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats in 9 matches, with 1.56 goals scored and 2.11 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of 9 matches (89%) of PSV Eindhoven's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Atletico Madrid's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 9 matches (67%) and 7 of 10 matches (70%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.67 per match for PSV Eindhoven and 13.90 for Atletico Madrid. On target, the averages are 3.67 and 4.80, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

PSV Eindhoven

5 matches
DLLLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
8
GA
10

Last 5

Atletico Madrid

5 matches
LLDLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
6

Last 9

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Last 10

Atletico Madrid

10 matches
LLDLWLWWDL
W
3
D
2
L
5
GF
20
GA
17

Last 9

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Last 17

Atletico Madrid

17 matches
LLDLWLWWDLDWWWLWL
W
7
D
3
L
7
GF
36
GA
30

Season

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Season

Atletico Madrid

17 matches
LLDLWLWWDLDWWWLWL
W
7
D
3
L
7
GF
36
GA
30

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

PSV Eindhoven

1.89 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

2.00 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

PSV Eindhoven

1.89 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

1.70 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

PSV Eindhoven

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

PSV Eindhoven

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

PSV Eindhoven

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

PSV Eindhoven

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

PSV Eindhoven

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Failed to score

PSV Eindhoven

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

PSV Eindhoven

4.78 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

4.70 · 10 matches

Average against

PSV Eindhoven

5.89 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

4.50 · 10 matches

Total average

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

9.20 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

PSV Eindhoven

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

PSV Eindhoven

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

PSV Eindhoven

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

PSV Eindhoven

3.00 · 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

1.50 · 10 matches

Opponent average

PSV Eindhoven

2.13 · 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

2.10 · 10 matches

Total average

PSV Eindhoven

5.13 · 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

3.60 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

10.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

PSV Eindhoven

9.56 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

9.10 · 10 matches

Total average

PSV Eindhoven

20.22 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

19.80 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

13.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

PSV Eindhoven

3.67 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

4.80 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

PSV Eindhoven

15.33 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

13.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

PSV Eindhoven

5.67 · 9 matches

Atletico Madrid

6.30 · 10 matches

Average xG

PSV Eindhoven

1.52 · 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

1.80 · 9 matches

Average xG against

PSV Eindhoven

2.01 · 8 matches

Atletico Madrid

1.80 · 9 matches

Home vs away

PSV Eindhoven at home × Atletico Madrid away

PSV Eindhoven at home

PSV Eindhoven

5 matches
DLLWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
11
GA
11

Atletico Madrid away

Atletico Madrid

9 matches
LLWLDDWLL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
14
GA
19
Average goals scored

PSV Eindhoven at home

2.20 · 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

1.56 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

PSV Eindhoven at home

2.20 · 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

2.11 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

PSV Eindhoven at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

PSV Eindhoven at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

PSV Eindhoven at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

PSV Eindhoven at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

PSV Eindhoven at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

PSV Eindhoven at home

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Failed to score

PSV Eindhoven at home

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Total corner average

PSV Eindhoven at home

11.40 · 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

10.67 · 9 matches

Over 8.5 corners

PSV Eindhoven at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Atletico Madrid away

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Total card average

PSV Eindhoven at home

7.50 · 4 matches

Atletico Madrid away

4.56 · 9 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

PSV Eindhoven

S. Dest

Centre-back

7.00

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Obispo

Centre-back

6.98

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

F. Kostić

Midfielder

6.87

1 matches · 68 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

K. Sano

Midfielder

6.84

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

L. Geertruida

Centre-back

6.65

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Kovář

Goalkeeper

6.57

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

N. Olij

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Atletico Madrid

J. Álvarez

Forward

7.51

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

Marcos Llorente

Midfielder

7.44

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

C. Romero

Centre-back

6.95

1 matches · 77 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Pablo Barrios

Midfielder

6.81

1 matches · 77 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Álex Grimaldo

Centre-back

6.72

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Oblak

Goalkeeper

6.09

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

J. Musso

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

PSV Eindhoven 2 × 3 Atletico Madrid1451118
Average goals
5.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
100% · 1 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
100% · 1 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 14.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.