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Manchester United vs RB Leipzig: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Old Trafford · Referee: not provided

Manchester United

Manchester United

4 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 4

VSRB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

32 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -3

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

65.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 65.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

57.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 81.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 57.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

81.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 81.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

85.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 85.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

69.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 69.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

15.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

18.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 97.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

65.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.41 × 1.05

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1492

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.41 × 1.05

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 71

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Manchester United recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 4.00 goals scored per match. RB Leipzig's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.00 goal scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester United at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, averaging 4.00 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded. Away from home, RB Leipzig has 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 1 match, with 1.00 goal scored and 4.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 0 of 1 matches (0%) of Manchester United's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of RB Leipzig's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 21.00 per match for Manchester United and 14.00 for RB Leipzig. On target, the averages are 10.00 and 4.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 5

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 1

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 1

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Season

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Season

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester United

4.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

4.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester United

7.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

1.00 · 1 match

Total average

Manchester United

9.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

6.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

3.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

2.00 · 1 match

Total average

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

5.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester United

12.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

10.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Manchester United

13.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

9.00 · 1 match

Total average

Manchester United

25.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

19.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester United

21.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Manchester United

10.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

4.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Manchester United

11.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig

6.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Manchester United

Insufficient data

RB Leipzig

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Manchester United

Insufficient data

RB Leipzig

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Manchester United at home × RB Leipzig away

Manchester United at home

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

RB Leipzig away

RB Leipzig

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
1
GA
4
Average goals scored

Manchester United at home

4.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig away

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Manchester United at home

0.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig away

4.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Manchester United at home

9.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig away

6.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

RB Leipzig away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total card average

Manchester United at home

2.00 · 1 match

RB Leipzig away

5.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester United

Matheus Cunha

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Lisandro Martínez

Centre-back

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

P. Dorgu

Centre-back

7.87

1 matches · 72 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. Šeško

Forward

7.84

1 matches · 64 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

6.66

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

RB Leipzig

A. Maksimović

Midfielder

7.18

1 matches · 70 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

C. Nkunku

Midfielder

7.09

1 matches · 60 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

T. Gomis

Forward

6.58

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

A. Nusa

Midfielder

6.54

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

B. Gruda

Midfielder

6.44

1 matches · 20 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Vandevoordt

Goalkeeper

5.94

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

Ø. Nyland

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.