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Liverpool vs FC Porto: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Anfield · Referee: not provided

Liverpool

Liverpool

13 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSFC Porto

FC Porto

31 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

57.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 13

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 57.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

53.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 75.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 53.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

80.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 80.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

57.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 68.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 57.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

19.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 50.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

59.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.02 × 1.01

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1527 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.02 × 1.01

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Liverpool recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats and averaged 1.80 goals scored per match. FC Porto's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 0.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 2 of 10 matches (20%) of Liverpool's sample and 0 of 1 matches (0%) of FC Porto's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 of 10 matches (50%) and 0 of 1 matches (0%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 19.00 per match for Liverpool and 5.00 for FC Porto. On target, the averages are 7.10 and 0.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WLLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
6

Last 5

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Last 10

Liverpool

10 matches
WLLWLWWWLW
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
18
GA
10

Last 1

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Last 13

Liverpool

13 matches
WLLWLWWWLWWLW
W
8
D
0
L
5
GF
26
GA
14

Last 1

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Season

Liverpool

13 matches
WLLWLWWWLWWLW
W
8
D
0
L
5
GF
26
GA
14

Season

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Liverpool

1.80 · 10 matches

FC Porto

0.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Liverpool

1.00 · 10 matches

FC Porto

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Liverpool

100% · 10 of 10 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Liverpool

70% · 7 of 10 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Liverpool

20% · 2 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Liverpool

6.20 · 10 matches

FC Porto

2.00 · 1 match

Average against

Liverpool

3.90 · 10 matches

FC Porto

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

Liverpool

10.10 · 10 matches

FC Porto

7.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Liverpool

80% · 8 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Liverpool

70% · 7 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Liverpool

60% · 6 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Liverpool

1.44 · 9 matches

FC Porto

1.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Liverpool

1.22 · 9 matches

FC Porto

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Liverpool

2.67 · 9 matches

FC Porto

4.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Liverpool

0% · 0 of 9 matches

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Liverpool

12.60 · 10 matches

FC Porto

10.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Liverpool

9.10 · 10 matches

FC Porto

17.00 · 1 match

Total average

Liverpool

21.70 · 10 matches

FC Porto

27.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Liverpool

19.00 · 10 matches

FC Porto

5.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Liverpool

7.10 · 10 matches

FC Porto

0.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Liverpool

10.40 · 10 matches

FC Porto

20.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Liverpool

3.60 · 10 matches

FC Porto

10.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Liverpool

2.46 · 9 matches

FC Porto

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Liverpool

1.03 · 9 matches

FC Porto

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Liverpool at home × FC Porto away

Liverpool at home

Liverpool

7 matches
WLWWLWW
W
5
D
0
L
2
GF
17
GA
9

FC Porto away

FC Porto

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

Liverpool at home

2.43 · 7 matches

FC Porto away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

Liverpool at home

1.29 · 7 matches

FC Porto away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

Liverpool at home

100% · 7 of 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

Liverpool at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

Liverpool at home

71% · 5 of 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

Liverpool at home

57% · 4 of 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

Liverpool at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

Liverpool at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

Liverpool at home

14% · 1 of 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

Liverpool at home

11.29 · 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

Liverpool at home

71% · 5 of 7 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Total card average

Liverpool at home

2.33 · 6 matches

FC Porto away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Liverpool

D. Szoboszlai

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Mac Allister

Midfielder

7.60

1 matches · 69 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Isak

Forward

6.91

1 matches · 88 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

R. Araújo

Centre-back

6.67

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Víctor Muñoz

Forward

7.01

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Alisson Becker

Goalkeeper

6.84

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

G. Mamardashvili

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

FC Porto

N. Pérez

Centre-back

6.62

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Kiwior

Centre-back

6.61

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Giménez

Forward

6.52

1 matches · 17 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Borja Sainz

Forward

6.44

1 matches · 22 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Martim Fernandes

Centre-back

6.42

1 matches · 73 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Diogo Costa

Goalkeeper

8.27

1 matches · 90 min

8 saves · 0 goals conceded

Andorinha

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.