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Lens vs Bodo/Glimt: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Referee: not provided

Lens

Lens

10 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSBodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt

36 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

82.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 82.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

69.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 66.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 69.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

88.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 88.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

62.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 62.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

33.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 96.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

44.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.74

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1510 × 1525

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 19

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.74

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Lens recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.00 goals scored per match. Bodo/Glimt's 10-match sample contains 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 2.10 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Lens's sample and 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Bodo/Glimt's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 10 of 10 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 26.00 per match for Lens and 10.60 for Bodo/Glimt. On target, the averages are 8.00 and 5.10, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 5

Bodo/Glimt

5 matches
LWWDD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
11
GA
11

Last 1

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 10

Bodo/Glimt

10 matches
LWWDDLWWWW
W
6
D
2
L
2
GF
21
GA
17

Last 1

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 19

Bodo/Glimt

19 matches
LWWDDLWWWWWDLLLDDLW
W
8
D
5
L
6
GF
39
GA
33

Season

Lens

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Bodo/Glimt

19 matches
LWWDDLWWWWWDLLLDDLW
W
8
D
5
L
6
GF
39
GA
33

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Lens

3.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

2.10 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Lens

2.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

1.70 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Lens

9.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

3.20 · 10 matches

Average against

Lens

6.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

7.30 · 10 matches

Total average

Lens

15.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

10.50 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Lens

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Lens

1.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

1.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Lens

1.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

2.20 · 10 matches

Total average

Lens

2.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

3.90 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Lens

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

10.22 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

9.56 · 9 matches

Total average

Lens

16.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

19.78 · 9 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Lens

26.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

10.60 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Lens

8.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

5.10 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Lens

18.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

20.60 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Lens

5.00 · 1 match

Bodo/Glimt

6.70 · 10 matches

Average xG

Lens

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt

1.63 · 5 matches

Average xG against

Lens

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt

2.08 · 5 matches

Home vs away

Lens at home × Bodo/Glimt away

Lens at home

Lens

0 matches

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

Bodo/Glimt

10 matches
LWDLWWDLDL
W
3
D
3
L
4
GF
16
GA
23
Average goals scored

Lens at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Bodo/Glimt away

1.60 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Lens at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Bodo/Glimt away

2.30 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Total corner average

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

12.10 · 10 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Total card average

Lens at home

Insufficient data

Bodo/Glimt away

3.50 · 10 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Lens

F. Thauvin

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 8 shots on target

A. Sima

Forward

7.67

1 matches · 75 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

R. Aguilar

Midfielder

7.47

1 matches · 28 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

F. Sotoca

Forward

7.06

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

O. Édouard

Forward

6.82

1 matches · 28 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

R. Risser

Goalkeeper

6.34

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Gorgelin

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bodo/Glimt

J. Hauge

Midfielder

7.66

4 matches · 293 min

1 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

A. Helmersen

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 301 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 6 of 11 shots on target

S. Auklend

Midfielder

6.81

4 matches · 339 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

O. Didrik Blomberg

Forward

7.48

4 matches · 376 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

P. Berg

Midfielder

7.10

4 matches · 390 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 11 shots on target

N. Haikin

Goalkeeper

6.73

4 matches · 345 min

15 saves · 3 goals conceded

J. Faye Lund

Goalkeeper

4.53

1 matches · 45 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.