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Borussia Dortmund vs Inter: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Signal Iduna Park · Referee: not provided

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

12 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSInter

Inter

25 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

81.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 82.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 81.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

65.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 75.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 65.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

86.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 86.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

57.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 78.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 57.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

33.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 84.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

43.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.86 × 1.60

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1489

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.86 × 1.60

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 60.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Borussia Dortmund recorded 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats and averaged 2.10 goals scored per match. Inter's 10-match sample contains 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Borussia Dortmund at home with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 6 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded. Away from home, Inter has 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Borussia Dortmund's sample and 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Inter's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 10 matches (70%) and 8 of 10 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.80 per match for Borussia Dortmund and 18.70 for Inter. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 5.70, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Borussia Dortmund

5 matches
WLWLL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Inter

5 matches
LLLWL
W
1
D
0
L
4
GF
6
GA
10

Last 10

Borussia Dortmund

10 matches
WLWLLDWLWW
W
5
D
1
L
4
GF
21
GA
19

Last 10

Inter

10 matches
LLLWLLLWWW
W
4
D
0
L
6
GF
16
GA
14

Last 11

Borussia Dortmund

11 matches
WLWLLDWLWWD
W
5
D
2
L
4
GF
25
GA
23

Last 11

Inter

11 matches
LLLWLLLWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
6
GF
18
GA
14

Season

Borussia Dortmund

11 matches
WLWLLDWLWWD
W
5
D
2
L
4
GF
25
GA
23

Season

Inter

11 matches
LLLWLLLWWWW
W
5
D
0
L
6
GF
18
GA
14

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Borussia Dortmund

2.10 · 10 matches

Inter

1.60 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Borussia Dortmund

1.90 · 10 matches

Inter

1.40 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Borussia Dortmund

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Inter

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Borussia Dortmund

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Inter

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Inter

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Borussia Dortmund

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Inter

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Borussia Dortmund

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Inter

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Inter

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Inter

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Borussia Dortmund

4.80 · 10 matches

Inter

6.70 · 10 matches

Average against

Borussia Dortmund

3.50 · 10 matches

Inter

3.60 · 10 matches

Total average

Borussia Dortmund

8.30 · 10 matches

Inter

10.30 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Borussia Dortmund

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Inter

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Inter

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Inter

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Inter

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Inter

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Borussia Dortmund

1.80 · 10 matches

Inter

1.60 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Borussia Dortmund

1.80 · 10 matches

Inter

1.10 · 10 matches

Total average

Borussia Dortmund

3.60 · 10 matches

Inter

2.70 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Inter

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Inter

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Inter

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Borussia Dortmund

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Inter

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Borussia Dortmund

12.00 · 10 matches

Inter

10.00 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Borussia Dortmund

12.20 · 10 matches

Inter

13.30 · 10 matches

Total average

Borussia Dortmund

24.20 · 10 matches

Inter

23.30 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Borussia Dortmund

11.80 · 10 matches

Inter

18.70 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Borussia Dortmund

4.80 · 10 matches

Inter

5.70 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Borussia Dortmund

11.50 · 10 matches

Inter

10.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Borussia Dortmund

5.10 · 10 matches

Inter

4.70 · 10 matches

Average xG

Borussia Dortmund

1.65 · 9 matches

Inter

2.11 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Borussia Dortmund

1.36 · 9 matches

Inter

1.06 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Borussia Dortmund at home × Inter away

Borussia Dortmund at home

Borussia Dortmund

6 matches
WWLDWW
W
4
D
1
L
1
GF
15
GA
7

Inter away

Inter

6 matches
LLWLWW
W
3
D
0
L
3
GF
11
GA
7
Average goals scored

Borussia Dortmund at home

2.50 · 6 matches

Inter away

1.83 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Borussia Dortmund at home

1.17 · 6 matches

Inter away

1.17 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Borussia Dortmund at home

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Inter away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Borussia Dortmund at home

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Inter away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund at home

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Inter away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Borussia Dortmund at home

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Inter away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Borussia Dortmund at home

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Inter away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Borussia Dortmund at home

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Inter away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Borussia Dortmund at home

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Inter away

0% · 0 of 6 matches

Total corner average

Borussia Dortmund at home

8.67 · 6 matches

Inter away

9.50 · 6 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Borussia Dortmund at home

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Inter away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Total card average

Borussia Dortmund at home

3.00 · 6 matches

Inter away

2.50 · 6 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy

Forward

7.39

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

Fábio Silva

Forward

6.84

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

M. Sabitzer

Midfielder

7.17

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

E. Nwaneri

Midfielder

6.81

1 matches · 55 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 6 shots on target

Kauã Prates

Centre-back

6.75

1 matches · 8 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

G. Kobel

Goalkeeper

7.26

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Meyer

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Inter

Carlos Augusto

Centre-back

8.20

1 matches · 83 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Lautaro Martínez

Forward

7.52

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

H. Çalhanoğlu

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 60 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

N. Barella

Midfielder

7.11

1 matches · 60 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

P. Sučić

Midfielder

7.03

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Josep Martínez

Goalkeeper

7.60

1 matches · 90 min

6 saves · 0 goals conceded

R. Di Gennaro

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Borussia Dortmund 0 × 2 Inter1451147
Average goals
2.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
0% · 0 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
0% · 0 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 8.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.