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Barcelona vs Manchester City: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Camp Nou · Referee: not provided

Barcelona

Barcelona

3 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 4

VSManchester City

Manchester City

8 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

76.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 76.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

65.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 73.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 65.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 82.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

87.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 87.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

63.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 84.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 63.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 11 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

26.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 82.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

51.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
11 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.12 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1519

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.12 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Barcelona recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 2.80 goals scored per match. Manchester City's 10-match sample contains 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Barcelona at home with 5 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 7 matches, averaging 3.57 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded. Away from home, Manchester City has 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Barcelona's sample and 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Manchester City's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of 10 matches (80%) and 6 of 10 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 17.90 per match for Barcelona and 15.30 for Manchester City. On target, the averages are 7.90 and 7.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Barcelona

5 matches
WWLWD
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
15
GA
7

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WLLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
8

Last 10

Barcelona

10 matches
WWLWDWWWLD
W
6
D
2
L
2
GF
28
GA
17

Last 10

Manchester City

10 matches
WLLWLWLWWD
W
5
D
1
L
4
GF
16
GA
14

Last 13

Barcelona

13 matches
WWLWDWWWLDWLW
W
8
D
2
L
3
GF
37
GA
21

Last 11

Manchester City

11 matches
WLLWLWLWWDW
W
6
D
1
L
4
GF
18
GA
14

Season

Barcelona

13 matches
WWLWDWWWLDWLW
W
8
D
2
L
3
GF
37
GA
21

Season

Manchester City

11 matches
WLLWLWLWWDW
W
6
D
1
L
4
GF
18
GA
14

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Barcelona

2.80 · 10 matches

Manchester City

1.60 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Barcelona

1.70 · 10 matches

Manchester City

1.40 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Barcelona

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Manchester City

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Barcelona

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Manchester City

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Barcelona

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Manchester City

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Barcelona

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Barcelona

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Manchester City

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Barcelona

4.70 · 10 matches

Manchester City

5.90 · 10 matches

Average against

Barcelona

2.50 · 10 matches

Manchester City

3.30 · 10 matches

Total average

Barcelona

7.20 · 10 matches

Manchester City

9.20 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Manchester City

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Barcelona

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Manchester City

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Barcelona

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Manchester City

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Barcelona

1.80 · 10 matches

Manchester City

2.30 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Barcelona

1.70 · 10 matches

Manchester City

1.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Barcelona

3.50 · 10 matches

Manchester City

3.80 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Barcelona

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Manchester City

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Manchester City

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Barcelona

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Barcelona

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Barcelona

9.30 · 10 matches

Manchester City

11.30 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Barcelona

13.10 · 10 matches

Manchester City

10.90 · 10 matches

Total average

Barcelona

22.40 · 10 matches

Manchester City

22.20 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Barcelona

17.90 · 10 matches

Manchester City

15.30 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Barcelona

7.90 · 10 matches

Manchester City

7.00 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Barcelona

9.70 · 10 matches

Manchester City

9.70 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Barcelona

3.80 · 10 matches

Manchester City

3.50 · 10 matches

Average xG

Barcelona

2.04 · 9 matches

Manchester City

1.64 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Barcelona

1.32 · 9 matches

Manchester City

1.46 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Barcelona at home × Manchester City away

Barcelona at home

Barcelona

7 matches
WLWWWWL
W
5
D
0
L
2
GF
25
GA
10

Manchester City away

Manchester City

6 matches
WLLWWD
W
3
D
1
L
2
GF
9
GA
9
Average goals scored

Barcelona at home

3.57 · 7 matches

Manchester City away

1.50 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Barcelona at home

1.43 · 7 matches

Manchester City away

1.50 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Barcelona at home

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Manchester City away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Barcelona at home

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Manchester City away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Barcelona at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Manchester City away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Barcelona at home

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Manchester City away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Barcelona at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Barcelona at home

0% · 0 of 7 matches

Manchester City away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Barcelona at home

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Manchester City away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Total corner average

Barcelona at home

8.43 · 7 matches

Manchester City away

8.17 · 6 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Barcelona at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Manchester City away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Total card average

Barcelona at home

4.57 · 7 matches

Manchester City away

4.67 · 6 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Barcelona

Lamine Yamal

Forward

9.60

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Raphinha

Forward

9.87

1 matches · 71 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Gabriel Jesus

Forward

7.83

1 matches · 7 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Pedri

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 63 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

K. Adeyemi

Forward

7.66

1 matches · 63 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Joan García

Goalkeeper

6.60

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

W. Szczęsny

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

8.00

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

E. Fernández

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

R. Aït-Nouri

Centre-back

7.09

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Matheus Nunes

Centre-back

7.30

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

P. Foden

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.94

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.