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Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Villa Park · Referee: not provided

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

9 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSParis Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain

1 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

90.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 90.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

69.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 69.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

79.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 79.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

89.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 89.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

49.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 36.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 49.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

54.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 26.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

20.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

25.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 2.34

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1512 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 2.34

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 31.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Aston Villa recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.00 goals scored per match. Paris Saint Germain's 10-match sample contains 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Aston Villa's sample and 7 of 10 matches (70%) of Paris Saint Germain's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 6 of 10 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 21.00 per match for Aston Villa and 18.10 for Paris Saint Germain. On target, the averages are 9.00 and 7.10, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 5

Paris Saint Germain

5 matches
WDDWW
W
3
D
2
L
0
GF
15
GA
7

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 10

Paris Saint Germain

10 matches
WDDWWWWWDW
W
7
D
3
L
0
GF
30
GA
13

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 18

Paris Saint Germain

18 matches
WDDWWWWWDWDLDWLWWW
W
11
D
5
L
2
GF
51
GA
24

Season

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Paris Saint Germain

18 matches
WDDWWWWWDWDLDWLWWW
W
11
D
5
L
2
GF
51
GA
24

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

3.00 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Aston Villa

2.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

1.30 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Aston Villa

5.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

5.40 · 10 matches

Average against

Aston Villa

4.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

3.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

9.10 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

1.11 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

2.33 · 9 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

6.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

3.44 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

9.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Aston Villa

17.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

10.30 · 10 matches

Total average

Aston Villa

31.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

20.00 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Aston Villa

21.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

18.10 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

7.10 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

11.20 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Aston Villa

7.00 · 1 match

Paris Saint Germain

4.50 · 10 matches

Average xG

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain

1.73 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain

1.38 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Aston Villa at home × Paris Saint Germain away

Aston Villa at home

Aston Villa

0 matches

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

Paris Saint Germain

8 matches
DWWWLDWW
W
5
D
2
L
1
GF
19
GA
8
Average goals scored

Aston Villa at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

2.38 · 8 matches

Average goals conceded

Aston Villa at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

1.00 · 8 matches

Over 0.5

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Over 1.5

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Over 2.5

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Over 3.5

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

25% · 2 of 8 matches

Both teams scored

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Clean sheet

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

38% · 3 of 8 matches

Failed to score

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

13% · 1 of 8 matches

Total corner average

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

10.25 · 8 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Total card average

Aston Villa at home

Insufficient data

Paris Saint Germain away

4.14 · 7 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Aston Villa

Pau Torres

Centre-back

7.80

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 81 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

João Gomes

Midfielder

7.63

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Buendía

Midfielder

7.49

1 matches · 68 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.33

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Paris Saint Germain

O. Dembélé

Forward

9.23

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Ferran Torres

Forward

9.70

1 matches · 73 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

Fabián Ruiz

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

M. Akliouche

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Vitinha

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Safonov

Goalkeeper

6.89

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

L. Chevalier

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.