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Arsenal vs Real Madrid: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 6

· LONDON TIME · Emirates Stadium · Referee: not provided

Arsenal

Arsenal

15 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSReal Madrid

Real Madrid

14 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

71.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 39.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 71.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

55.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 55.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

94.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 94.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

78.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 78.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

52.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 52.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

24.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 69.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 78.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

51.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.77 × 1.12

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1603 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 60.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 16 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.77 × 1.12

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 91.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Arsenal recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 1.40 goals scored per match. Real Madrid's 10-match sample contains 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 2.30 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Arsenal at home with 6 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 7 matches, averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.43 goals conceded. Away from home, Real Madrid has 4 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 7 matches, with 2.43 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Arsenal's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Real Madrid's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 10 matches (20%) and 9 of 10 matches (90%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.90 per match for Arsenal and 16.10 for Real Madrid. On target, the averages are 4.90 and 5.90, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Arsenal

5 matches
WDWDD
W
2
D
3
L
0
GF
4
GA
2

Last 5

Real Madrid

5 matches
WLLWW
W
3
D
0
L
2
GF
11
GA
8

Last 10

Arsenal

10 matches
WDWDDWWDWW
W
6
D
4
L
0
GF
14
GA
6

Last 10

Real Madrid

10 matches
WLLWWWWLWL
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Last 16

Arsenal

16 matches
WDWDDWWDWWWWWWWW
W
12
D
4
L
0
GF
31
GA
7

Last 15

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Season

Arsenal

16 matches
WDWDDWWDWWWWWWWW
W
12
D
4
L
0
GF
31
GA
7

Season

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Arsenal

1.40 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

2.30 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal

0.60 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

1.60 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Arsenal

5.80 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

4.90 · 10 matches

Average against

Arsenal

3.90 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

7.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Arsenal

9.70 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

12.40 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Arsenal

1.20 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

2.90 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

1.70 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

2.20 · 10 matches

Total average

Arsenal

2.90 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

5.10 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Arsenal

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Arsenal

11.10 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

11.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Arsenal

10.10 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

10.60 · 10 matches

Total average

Arsenal

21.20 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

22.30 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Arsenal

14.90 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

16.10 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Arsenal

4.90 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

5.90 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Arsenal

11.30 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

16.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Arsenal

3.00 · 10 matches

Real Madrid

6.90 · 10 matches

Average xG

Arsenal

1.68 · 9 matches

Real Madrid

2.08 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Arsenal

1.08 · 9 matches

Real Madrid

1.87 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Arsenal at home × Real Madrid away

Arsenal at home

Arsenal

7 matches
WDWWWWW
W
6
D
1
L
0
GF
15
GA
3

Real Madrid away

Real Madrid

7 matches
LWWLWLW
W
4
D
0
L
3
GF
17
GA
13
Average goals scored

Arsenal at home

2.14 · 7 matches

Real Madrid away

2.43 · 7 matches

Average goals conceded

Arsenal at home

0.43 · 7 matches

Real Madrid away

1.86 · 7 matches

Over 0.5

Arsenal at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Real Madrid away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 1.5

Arsenal at home

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Over 2.5

Arsenal at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Over 3.5

Arsenal at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Real Madrid away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Both teams scored

Arsenal at home

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Real Madrid away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Clean sheet

Arsenal at home

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Real Madrid away

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Failed to score

Arsenal at home

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Real Madrid away

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Total corner average

Arsenal at home

9.86 · 7 matches

Real Madrid away

9.86 · 7 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Arsenal at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Total card average

Arsenal at home

2.57 · 7 matches

Real Madrid away

5.43 · 7 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Arsenal

M. Ødegaard

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

C. Tzolis

Forward

6.75

1 matches · 24 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

D. Rice

Midfielder

7.30

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. White

Centre-back

7.24

1 matches · 82 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Bruno Guimarães

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 25 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

David Raya

Goalkeeper

7.46

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

I. Meslier

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Real Madrid

F. Valverde

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Kylian Mbappé

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 89 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 4 shots on target

Brahim Díaz

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 79 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Marc Cucurella

Centre-back

7.13

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Bellingham

Midfielder

6.87

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

T. Courtois

Goalkeeper

7.90

1 matches · 90 min

7 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Lunin

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.