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Sporting CP vs Manchester United: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Stadium not provided · Referee: not provided

Sporting CP

Sporting CP

7 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

VSManchester United

Manchester United

4 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 4

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 80.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

61.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 71.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 61.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

82.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 82.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

52.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 52.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

32.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 71.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 80.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

44.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.74 × 1.45

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1531 × 1509

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.74 × 1.45

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 51.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Sporting CP recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Manchester United's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 4.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Sporting CP's sample and 0 of 1 matches (0%) of Manchester United's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 10 matches (70%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 12.00 per match for Sporting CP and 21.00 for Manchester United. On target, the averages are 4.70 and 10.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Sporting CP

5 matches
WDLWL
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
6
GA
5

Last 5

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 10

Sporting CP

10 matches
WDLWLWWLWD
W
5
D
2
L
3
GF
16
GA
12

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 13

Sporting CP

13 matches
WDLWLWWLWDWLW
W
7
D
2
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Season

Sporting CP

13 matches
WDLWLWWLWDWLW
W
7
D
2
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Season

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Sporting CP

1.60 · 10 matches

Manchester United

4.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Sporting CP

1.20 · 10 matches

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Sporting CP

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Sporting CP

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Sporting CP

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Sporting CP

4.30 · 10 matches

Manchester United

7.00 · 1 match

Average against

Sporting CP

5.50 · 10 matches

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

Total average

Sporting CP

9.80 · 10 matches

Manchester United

9.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Sporting CP

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Sporting CP

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Sporting CP

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Sporting CP

2.00 · 10 matches

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Sporting CP

2.20 · 10 matches

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

Total average

Sporting CP

4.20 · 10 matches

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Sporting CP

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Sporting CP

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Sporting CP

10.80 · 10 matches

Manchester United

12.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Sporting CP

12.70 · 10 matches

Manchester United

13.00 · 1 match

Total average

Sporting CP

23.50 · 10 matches

Manchester United

25.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Sporting CP

12.00 · 10 matches

Manchester United

21.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Sporting CP

4.70 · 10 matches

Manchester United

10.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Sporting CP

13.80 · 10 matches

Manchester United

11.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Sporting CP

4.30 · 10 matches

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Sporting CP

1.15 · 9 matches

Manchester United

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Sporting CP

1.30 · 9 matches

Manchester United

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Sporting CP at home × Manchester United away

Sporting CP at home

Sporting CP

7 matches
WLWWWWW
W
6
D
0
L
1
GF
17
GA
5

Manchester United away

Manchester United

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

Sporting CP at home

2.43 · 7 matches

Manchester United away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

Sporting CP at home

0.71 · 7 matches

Manchester United away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

Sporting CP at home

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

Sporting CP at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

Sporting CP at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

Sporting CP at home

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

Sporting CP at home

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

Sporting CP at home

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

Sporting CP at home

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

Sporting CP at home

9.57 · 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

Sporting CP at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Total card average

Sporting CP at home

4.86 · 7 matches

Manchester United away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Sporting CP

Geny Catamo

Midfielder

7.56

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

L. Suárez

Forward

7.14

1 matches · 74 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

R. Zalazar

Midfielder

6.91

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Eduardo Quaresma

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 84 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Araújo

Centre-back

6.75

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Rui Silva

Goalkeeper

7.08

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kaique

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Manchester United

Matheus Cunha

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Lisandro Martínez

Centre-back

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

P. Dorgu

Centre-back

7.87

1 matches · 72 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. Šeško

Forward

7.84

1 matches · 64 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

6.66

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.