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Slavia Praha vs Villarreal: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Fortuna Arena · Referee: not provided

Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha

23 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSVillarreal

Villarreal

21 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

71.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 19.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 71.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

62.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 68.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 62.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

83.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 83.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

51.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 58.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 51.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

32.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 99.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

44.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.82 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1445 × 1430

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.82 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 9 recent matches, Slavia Praha recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats and averaged 0.78 goals scored per match. Villarreal's 9-match sample contains 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats, with 0.78 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Slavia Praha at home with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 5 matches, averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded. Away from home, Villarreal has 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in 5 matches, with 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Slavia Praha's sample and 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Villarreal's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 9 matches (78%) and 6 of 9 matches (67%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.00 per match for Slavia Praha and 13.56 for Villarreal. On target, the averages are 3.89 and 4.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Slavia Praha

5 matches
LLLLD
W
0
D
1
L
4
GF
5
GA
14

Last 5

Villarreal

5 matches
LLLLL
W
0
D
0
L
5
GF
5
GA
15

Last 9

Slavia Praha

9 matches
LLLLDLDLD
W
0
D
3
L
6
GF
7
GA
22

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Last 9

Slavia Praha

9 matches
LLLLDLDLD
W
0
D
3
L
6
GF
7
GA
22

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Season

Slavia Praha

9 matches
LLLLDLDLD
W
0
D
3
L
6
GF
7
GA
22

Season

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Slavia Praha

0.78 · 9 matches

Villarreal

0.78 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

Slavia Praha

2.44 · 9 matches

Villarreal

2.33 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Villarreal

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Villarreal

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Slavia Praha

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

Slavia Praha

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

Slavia Praha

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Villarreal

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Failed to score

Slavia Praha

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Villarreal

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Slavia Praha

3.67 · 9 matches

Villarreal

3.78 · 9 matches

Average against

Slavia Praha

6.22 · 9 matches

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Total average

Slavia Praha

9.89 · 9 matches

Villarreal

7.78 · 9 matches

Over 7.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 8.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 9.5

Slavia Praha

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 10.5

Slavia Praha

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Over 11.5

Slavia Praha

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Slavia Praha

1.89 · 9 matches

Villarreal

2.56 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Slavia Praha

2.33 · 9 matches

Villarreal

1.78 · 9 matches

Total average

Slavia Praha

4.22 · 9 matches

Villarreal

4.33 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Slavia Praha

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Villarreal

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Slavia Praha

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Slavia Praha

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Slavia Praha

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Slavia Praha

15.89 · 9 matches

Villarreal

12.44 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Slavia Praha

10.67 · 9 matches

Villarreal

13.78 · 9 matches

Total average

Slavia Praha

26.56 · 9 matches

Villarreal

26.22 · 9 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Slavia Praha

13.00 · 9 matches

Villarreal

13.56 · 9 matches

Average shots on target

Slavia Praha

3.89 · 9 matches

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Average shots conceded

Slavia Praha

17.67 · 9 matches

Villarreal

11.78 · 9 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Slavia Praha

7.89 · 9 matches

Villarreal

4.78 · 9 matches

Average xG

Slavia Praha

1.19 · 8 matches

Villarreal

1.22 · 8 matches

Average xG against

Slavia Praha

2.21 · 8 matches

Villarreal

1.52 · 8 matches

Home vs away

Slavia Praha at home × Villarreal away

Slavia Praha at home

Slavia Praha

5 matches
LLDLD
W
0
D
2
L
3
GF
6
GA
12

Villarreal away

Villarreal

5 matches
LLLLL
W
0
D
0
L
5
GF
2
GA
12
Average goals scored

Slavia Praha at home

1.20 · 5 matches

Villarreal away

0.40 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Slavia Praha at home

2.40 · 5 matches

Villarreal away

2.40 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Slavia Praha at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Villarreal away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Slavia Praha at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Villarreal away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Slavia Praha at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Villarreal away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Slavia Praha at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Villarreal away

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Slavia Praha at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Villarreal away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Slavia Praha at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Villarreal away

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Slavia Praha at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Villarreal away

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Total corner average

Slavia Praha at home

10.80 · 5 matches

Villarreal away

7.40 · 5 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Slavia Praha at home

80% · 4 of 5 matches

Villarreal away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Total card average

Slavia Praha at home

4.00 · 5 matches

Villarreal away

3.80 · 5 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Slavia Praha

D. Šturm

Forward

8.10

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

S. Isife

Midfielder

6.90

1 matches · 84 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Sadílek

Midfielder

6.79

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

I. Schranz

Forward

6.45

1 matches · 6 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Š. Chaloupek

Centre-back

6.35

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

J. Markovič

Goalkeeper

6.66

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

Adam Rezek

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Villarreal

S. Mouriño

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Mikautadze

Forward

6.95

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

T. Buchanan

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

N. Pépé

Forward

6.76

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Freeman

Centre-back

6.56

1 matches · 45 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

P. Gulácsi

Goalkeeper

6.70

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

Rubén Gómez

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.