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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Stamford Bridge · Referee: not provided

Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk

18 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

VSFenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe

20 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

73.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 72.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 73.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

51.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 83.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 51.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

72.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 72.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

92.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 92.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

72.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 83.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 72.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

33.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 33.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

37.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

27.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 85.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

35.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.22 × 1.27

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1529

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 11

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.22 × 1.27

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Shakhtar Donetsk recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Fenerbahçe's 10-match sample contains 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat, with 1.40 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Shakhtar Donetsk's sample and 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Fenerbahçe's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 0 of 1 matches (0%) and 2 of 10 matches (20%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 8.00 per match for Shakhtar Donetsk and 12.90 for Fenerbahçe. On target, the averages are 2.00 and 5.50, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 5

Fenerbahçe

5 matches
DWDWW
W
3
D
2
L
0
GF
7
GA
3

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 10

Fenerbahçe

10 matches
DWDWWDWLDW
W
5
D
4
L
1
GF
14
GA
7

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 11

Fenerbahçe

11 matches
DWDWWDWLDWL
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
15
GA
9

Season

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Season

Fenerbahçe

11 matches
DWDWWDWLDWL
W
5
D
4
L
2
GF
15
GA
9

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

1.40 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

0.70 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

4.70 · 10 matches

Average against

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

4.30 · 10 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

9.00 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

3.00 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

2.44 · 9 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

9.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

5.44 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fenerbahçe

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Shakhtar Donetsk

15.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

14.90 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Shakhtar Donetsk

14.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

13.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

29.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

28.60 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Shakhtar Donetsk

8.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

12.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

5.50 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

10.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

11.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Fenerbahçe

3.80 · 10 matches

Average xG

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Shakhtar Donetsk at home × Fenerbahçe away

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Shakhtar Donetsk

0 matches

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

Fenerbahçe

5 matches
WWDLL
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
5
GA
5
Average goals scored

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Fenerbahçe away

1.00 · 5 matches

Average goals conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Fenerbahçe away

1.00 · 5 matches

Over 0.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Over 1.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

0% · 0 of 5 matches

Both teams scored

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Clean sheet

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Failed to score

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Total corner average

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

10.80 · 5 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Total card average

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Fenerbahçe away

5.40 · 5 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Shakhtar Donetsk

G. Mendoza

Midfielder

7.17

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Pedrinho

Centre-back

6.79

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

V. Bondar

Centre-back

6.69

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

L. Traoré

Forward

6.62

1 matches · 24 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Marlon Gomes

Midfielder

6.53

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

D. Riznyk

Goalkeeper

5.86

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Fesyun

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Fenerbahçe

M. Greenwood

Midfielder

6.92

7 matches · 449 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 5 of 11 shots on target

A. Brown

Centre-back

7.29

5 matches · 423 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

K. Aktürkoğlu

Midfielder

6.80

6 matches · 462 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 8 of 8 shots on target

V. Muriqi

Forward

6.77

4 matches · 250 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 5 shots on target

Marco Asensio

Midfielder

6.76

5 matches · 215 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Günok

Goalkeeper

5.66

5 matches · 363 min

9 saves · 1 goals conceded

Ederson

Goalkeeper

6.87

3 matches · 270 min

11 saves · 2 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.