RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Stadium not provided · Referee: not provided

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

14 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSPSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven

19 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 70.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

64.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 64.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

85.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 85.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

63.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 63.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

24.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

54.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.10 × 1.31

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1543 × 1481

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.10 × 1.31

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Real Madrid recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats and averaged 2.30 goals scored per match. PSV Eindhoven's 9-match sample contains 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, with 1.89 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Real Madrid at home with 6 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 8 matches, averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, PSV Eindhoven has 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 4 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Real Madrid's sample and 8 of 9 matches (89%) of PSV Eindhoven's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 9 of 10 matches (90%) and 6 of 9 matches (67%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.10 per match for Real Madrid and 10.67 for PSV Eindhoven. On target, the averages are 5.90 and 3.67, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Real Madrid

5 matches
WLLWW
W
3
D
0
L
2
GF
11
GA
8

Last 5

PSV Eindhoven

5 matches
DLLLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
8
GA
10

Last 10

Real Madrid

10 matches
WLLWWWWLWL
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Last 9

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Last 15

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Last 9

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Season

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Season

PSV Eindhoven

9 matches
DLLLWDWDL
W
2
D
3
L
4
GF
17
GA
17

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Real Madrid

2.30 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

1.89 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

Real Madrid

1.60 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

1.89 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

Real Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

Real Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Failed to score

Real Madrid

0% · 0 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Real Madrid

4.90 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

4.78 · 9 matches

Average against

Real Madrid

7.50 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

5.89 · 9 matches

Total average

Real Madrid

12.40 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

Over 7.5

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 8.5

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 9.5

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 10.5

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 11.5

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Real Madrid

2.90 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

3.00 · 8 matches

Opponent average

Real Madrid

2.20 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

2.13 · 8 matches

Total average

Real Madrid

5.10 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

5.13 · 8 matches

Over 2.5

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Over 3.5

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Over 4.5

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Over 5.5

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Real Madrid

11.70 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Real Madrid

10.60 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

9.56 · 9 matches

Total average

Real Madrid

22.30 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

20.22 · 9 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Real Madrid

16.10 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

10.67 · 9 matches

Average shots on target

Real Madrid

5.90 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

3.67 · 9 matches

Average shots conceded

Real Madrid

16.80 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

15.33 · 9 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Real Madrid

6.90 · 10 matches

PSV Eindhoven

5.67 · 9 matches

Average xG

Real Madrid

2.08 · 9 matches

PSV Eindhoven

1.52 · 8 matches

Average xG against

Real Madrid

1.87 · 9 matches

PSV Eindhoven

2.01 · 8 matches

Home vs away

Real Madrid at home × PSV Eindhoven away

Real Madrid at home

Real Madrid

8 matches
WLWWWLWW
W
6
D
0
L
2
GF
18
GA
8

PSV Eindhoven away

PSV Eindhoven

4 matches
LWDD
W
1
D
2
L
1
GF
6
GA
6
Average goals scored

Real Madrid at home

2.25 · 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

1.50 · 4 matches

Average goals conceded

Real Madrid at home

1.00 · 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

1.50 · 4 matches

Over 0.5

Real Madrid at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Over 1.5

Real Madrid at home

88% · 7 of 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Over 2.5

Real Madrid at home

88% · 7 of 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

Real Madrid at home

13% · 1 of 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Both teams scored

Real Madrid at home

75% · 6 of 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Clean sheet

Real Madrid at home

25% · 2 of 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Failed to score

Real Madrid at home

0% · 0 of 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Total corner average

Real Madrid at home

13.88 · 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

9.75 · 4 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Real Madrid at home

88% · 7 of 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Total card average

Real Madrid at home

3.75 · 8 matches

PSV Eindhoven away

2.75 · 4 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Real Madrid

F. Valverde

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Kylian Mbappé

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 89 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 4 shots on target

Brahim Díaz

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 79 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Marc Cucurella

Centre-back

7.13

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Bellingham

Midfielder

6.87

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

T. Courtois

Goalkeeper

7.90

1 matches · 90 min

7 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Lunin

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

PSV Eindhoven

S. Dest

Centre-back

7.00

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Obispo

Centre-back

6.98

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

F. Kostić

Midfielder

6.87

1 matches · 68 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

K. Sano

Midfielder

6.84

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

L. Geertruida

Centre-back

6.65

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

M. Kovář

Goalkeeper

6.57

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

N. Olij

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Strong statistical convergence for matches with 9+ corners across the available scopes.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.