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Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Parc des Princes · Referee: not provided

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain

1 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 5

VSAS Roma

AS Roma

17 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

68.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 68.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

63.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 63.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

82.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 68.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 82.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

88.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 88.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

72.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 78.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 72.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

15.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 59

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

17.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 68.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

67.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.64 × 1.14

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1582 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 18 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.64 × 1.14

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 27.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Paris Saint Germain recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.00 goals scored per match. AS Roma's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats, with 1.00 goal scored per match.

The venue split shows Paris Saint Germain at home with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 10 matches, averaging 3.20 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded. Away from home, AS Roma has 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of 10 matches (70%) of Paris Saint Germain's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of AS Roma's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 10 matches (60%) and 0 of 1 matches (0%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 18.10 per match for Paris Saint Germain and 8.00 for AS Roma. On target, the averages are 7.10 and 3.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Paris Saint Germain

5 matches
WDDWW
W
3
D
2
L
0
GF
15
GA
7

Last 5

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 10

Paris Saint Germain

10 matches
WDDWWWWWDW
W
7
D
3
L
0
GF
30
GA
13

Last 1

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 18

Paris Saint Germain

18 matches
WDDWWWWWDWDLDWLWWW
W
11
D
5
L
2
GF
51
GA
24

Last 1

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Season

Paris Saint Germain

18 matches
WDDWWWWWDWDLDWLWWW
W
11
D
5
L
2
GF
51
GA
24

Season

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Paris Saint Germain

3.00 · 10 matches

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Paris Saint Germain

1.30 · 10 matches

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Paris Saint Germain

100% · 10 of 10 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Paris Saint Germain

100% · 10 of 10 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Paris Saint Germain

60% · 6 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Paris Saint Germain

50% · 5 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Paris Saint Germain

0% · 0 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Paris Saint Germain

5.40 · 10 matches

AS Roma

3.00 · 1 match

Average against

Paris Saint Germain

3.70 · 10 matches

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Total average

Paris Saint Germain

9.10 · 10 matches

AS Roma

4.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Paris Saint Germain

40% · 4 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Paris Saint Germain

1.11 · 9 matches

AS Roma

2.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Paris Saint Germain

2.33 · 9 matches

AS Roma

4.00 · 1 match

Total average

Paris Saint Germain

3.44 · 9 matches

AS Roma

6.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Paris Saint Germain

56% · 5 of 9 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Paris Saint Germain

9.70 · 10 matches

AS Roma

19.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Paris Saint Germain

10.30 · 10 matches

AS Roma

12.00 · 1 match

Total average

Paris Saint Germain

20.00 · 10 matches

AS Roma

31.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Paris Saint Germain

18.10 · 10 matches

AS Roma

8.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Paris Saint Germain

7.10 · 10 matches

AS Roma

3.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Paris Saint Germain

11.20 · 10 matches

AS Roma

11.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Paris Saint Germain

4.50 · 10 matches

AS Roma

5.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Paris Saint Germain

1.73 · 9 matches

AS Roma

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Paris Saint Germain

1.38 · 9 matches

AS Roma

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Paris Saint Germain at home × AS Roma away

Paris Saint Germain at home

Paris Saint Germain

10 matches
WDWWWDDWLW
W
6
D
3
L
1
GF
32
GA
16

AS Roma away

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1
Average goals scored

Paris Saint Germain at home

3.20 · 10 matches

AS Roma away

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Paris Saint Germain at home

1.60 · 10 matches

AS Roma away

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Paris Saint Germain at home

100% · 10 of 10 matches

AS Roma away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Paris Saint Germain at home

100% · 10 of 10 matches

AS Roma away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Paris Saint Germain at home

70% · 7 of 10 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Paris Saint Germain at home

60% · 6 of 10 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Paris Saint Germain at home

80% · 8 of 10 matches

AS Roma away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Paris Saint Germain at home

20% · 2 of 10 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Paris Saint Germain at home

0% · 0 of 10 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Paris Saint Germain at home

8.40 · 10 matches

AS Roma away

4.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Paris Saint Germain at home

50% · 5 of 10 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total card average

Paris Saint Germain at home

2.90 · 10 matches

AS Roma away

6.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Paris Saint Germain

O. Dembélé

Forward

9.23

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Ferran Torres

Forward

9.70

1 matches · 73 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

Fabián Ruiz

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

M. Akliouche

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Vitinha

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Safonov

Goalkeeper

6.89

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

L. Chevalier

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

AS Roma

B. Cristante

Midfielder

8.08

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

D. Malen

Forward

6.96

1 matches · 87 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

M. Koné

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 53 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

E. Ndicka

Centre-back

6.78

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Pisilli

Midfielder

6.75

1 matches · 37 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Svilar

Goalkeeper

7.72

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

P. Gollini

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.