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Manchester City vs Napoli: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Etihad Stadium · Referee: not provided

Manchester City

Manchester City

8 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

VSNapoli

Napoli

27 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

61.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 71

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 61.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

52.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 84.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 52.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.7%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.7%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

94.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 94.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

78.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 78.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

56.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 56.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

21.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 48

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

55.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.84 × 1.00

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1519 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.84 × 1.00

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 67.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Manchester City recorded 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats and averaged 1.60 goals scored per match. Napoli's 9-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, with 1.00 goal scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester City at home with 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 5 matches, averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Napoli has 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 4 matches, with 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Manchester City's sample and 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Napoli's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 10 matches (60%) and 3 of 9 matches (33%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 15.30 per match for Manchester City and 11.00 for Napoli. On target, the averages are 7.00 and 3.56, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester City

5 matches
WLLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
8

Last 5

Napoli

5 matches
LLDLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
7

Last 10

Manchester City

10 matches
WLLWLWLWWD
W
5
D
1
L
4
GF
16
GA
14

Last 9

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Last 11

Manchester City

11 matches
WLLWLWLWWDW
W
6
D
1
L
4
GF
18
GA
14

Last 9

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Season

Manchester City

11 matches
WLLWLWLWWDW
W
6
D
1
L
4
GF
18
GA
14

Season

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester City

1.60 · 10 matches

Napoli

1.00 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City

1.40 · 10 matches

Napoli

1.78 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Napoli

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Napoli

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Napoli

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester City

5.90 · 10 matches

Napoli

5.44 · 9 matches

Average against

Manchester City

3.30 · 10 matches

Napoli

3.56 · 9 matches

Total average

Manchester City

9.20 · 10 matches

Napoli

9.00 · 9 matches

Over 7.5

Manchester City

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Napoli

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Napoli

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester City

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester City

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Napoli

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester City

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester City

2.30 · 10 matches

Napoli

2.00 · 8 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

1.50 · 10 matches

Napoli

1.63 · 8 matches

Total average

Manchester City

3.80 · 10 matches

Napoli

3.63 · 8 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Napoli

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Napoli

38% · 3 of 8 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Napoli

25% · 2 of 8 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester City

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Napoli

13% · 1 of 8 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester City

11.30 · 10 matches

Napoli

13.56 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Manchester City

10.90 · 10 matches

Napoli

9.89 · 9 matches

Total average

Manchester City

22.20 · 10 matches

Napoli

23.44 · 9 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester City

15.30 · 10 matches

Napoli

11.00 · 9 matches

Average shots on target

Manchester City

7.00 · 10 matches

Napoli

3.56 · 9 matches

Average shots conceded

Manchester City

9.70 · 10 matches

Napoli

13.67 · 9 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester City

3.50 · 10 matches

Napoli

5.33 · 9 matches

Average xG

Manchester City

1.64 · 9 matches

Napoli

1.33 · 8 matches

Average xG against

Manchester City

1.46 · 9 matches

Napoli

1.61 · 8 matches

Home vs away

Manchester City at home × Napoli away

Manchester City at home

Manchester City

5 matches
LWLWW
W
3
D
0
L
2
GF
9
GA
5

Napoli away

Napoli

4 matches
DLLL
W
0
D
1
L
3
GF
3
GA
11
Average goals scored

Manchester City at home

1.80 · 5 matches

Napoli away

0.75 · 4 matches

Average goals conceded

Manchester City at home

1.00 · 5 matches

Napoli away

2.75 · 4 matches

Over 0.5

Manchester City at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Napoli away

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester City at home

100% · 5 of 5 matches

Napoli away

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester City at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Napoli away

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester City at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Napoli away

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester City at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Napoli away

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester City at home

40% · 2 of 5 matches

Napoli away

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Failed to score

Manchester City at home

20% · 1 of 5 matches

Napoli away

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Total corner average

Manchester City at home

10.80 · 5 matches

Napoli away

10.75 · 4 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester City at home

60% · 3 of 5 matches

Napoli away

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Total card average

Manchester City at home

2.40 · 5 matches

Napoli away

4.00 · 4 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester City

E. Haaland

Forward

8.00

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

E. Fernández

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

R. Aït-Nouri

Centre-back

7.09

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Matheus Nunes

Centre-back

7.30

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

P. Foden

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

G. Donnarumma

Goalkeeper

6.94

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

G. Rulli

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Napoli

Rafa Marín

Centre-back

7.10

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Olivera

Centre-back

6.85

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Amir Rrahmani

Centre-back

6.76

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

G. Di Lorenzo

Centre-back

6.73

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Politano

Midfielder

6.64

1 matches · 57 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

A. Meret

Goalkeeper

7.40

1 matches · 45 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

V. Milinković-Savić

Goalkeeper

6.72

1 matches · 45 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Manchester City 2 × 0 Napoli1451037
Average goals
2.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
0% · 0 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
0% · 0 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 11.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.