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Galatasaray vs Aston Villa: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Rams Park · Referee: not provided

Galatasaray

Galatasaray

30 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -2

VSAston Villa

Aston Villa

9 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

79.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 66.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 79.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

63.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 67.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 63.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

76.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 76.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

83.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 83.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

43.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 37.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 43.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

39.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 63.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

23.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

36.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.62 × 1.70

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1485 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.62 × 1.70

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 37

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Galatasaray recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats and averaged 1.10 goals scored per match. Aston Villa's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Galatasaray at home with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 6 matches, averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded. Away from home, Aston Villa has 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 10 matches (30%) of Galatasaray's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Aston Villa's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 of 10 matches (50%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 12.00 per match for Galatasaray and 21.00 for Aston Villa. On target, the averages are 4.30 and 9.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Galatasaray

5 matches
LLWLW
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
7
GA
12

Last 5

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 10

Galatasaray

10 matches
LLWLWLDLLW
W
3
D
1
L
6
GF
11
GA
17

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 13

Galatasaray

13 matches
LLWLWLDLLWWWL
W
5
D
1
L
7
GF
16
GA
23

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Galatasaray

13 matches
LLWLWLDLLWWWL
W
5
D
1
L
7
GF
16
GA
23

Season

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Galatasaray

1.10 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Galatasaray

1.70 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Galatasaray

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Galatasaray

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Galatasaray

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Galatasaray

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Galatasaray

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Galatasaray

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Galatasaray

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Galatasaray

3.90 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

Galatasaray

5.10 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

4.00 · 1 match

Total average

Galatasaray

9.00 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Galatasaray

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Galatasaray

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Galatasaray

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Galatasaray

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Galatasaray

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Galatasaray

2.33 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Galatasaray

2.78 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Galatasaray

5.11 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

6.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Galatasaray

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Galatasaray

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Galatasaray

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Galatasaray

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Galatasaray

11.10 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Galatasaray

14.10 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

17.00 · 1 match

Total average

Galatasaray

25.20 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

31.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Galatasaray

12.00 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

21.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Galatasaray

4.30 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Galatasaray

15.80 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Galatasaray

6.10 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

7.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Galatasaray

1.36 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Galatasaray

2.44 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Galatasaray at home × Aston Villa away

Galatasaray at home

Galatasaray

6 matches
WWDLWW
W
4
D
1
L
1
GF
11
GA
5

Aston Villa away

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2
Average goals scored

Galatasaray at home

1.83 · 6 matches

Aston Villa away

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Galatasaray at home

0.83 · 6 matches

Aston Villa away

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Galatasaray at home

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Galatasaray at home

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Galatasaray at home

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Galatasaray at home

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Galatasaray at home

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Galatasaray at home

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Aston Villa away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Galatasaray at home

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Aston Villa away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Galatasaray at home

10.33 · 6 matches

Aston Villa away

9.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Galatasaray at home

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Total card average

Galatasaray at home

5.83 · 6 matches

Aston Villa away

6.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Galatasaray

R. Sallai

Centre-back

6.68

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Rafael Leão

Midfielder

6.61

1 matches · 32 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

L. Torreira

Midfielder

6.55

1 matches · 85 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

B. Yılmaz

Forward

6.31

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

D. Sánchez

Centre-back

6.26

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

U. Çakır

Goalkeeper

5.90

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

J. Yılmaz

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Aston Villa

Pau Torres

Centre-back

7.80

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 81 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

João Gomes

Midfielder

7.63

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Buendía

Midfielder

7.49

1 matches · 68 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.33

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.