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Como vs AEK Athens FC: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Stadium not provided · Referee: not provided

Como

Como

5 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 3

VSAEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC

16 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

70.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 69.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 70.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

54.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 71.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 54.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

74.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 74.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

93.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 93.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

76.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 76.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

50.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 36

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 50.0%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

32.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 66.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 86.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

42.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.53 × 1.30

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1508 × 1520

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 3

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.53 × 1.30

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 52.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Como recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 4.00 goals scored per match. AEK Athens FC's 3-match sample contains 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats, with 1.67 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Como at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, AEK Athens FC has 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Como's sample and 0 of 3 matches (0%) of AEK Athens FC's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 1 of 3 matches (33%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.00 per match for Como and 16.00 for AEK Athens FC. On target, the averages are 6.00 and 4.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

Last 5

AEK Athens FC

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Last 1

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

Last 3

AEK Athens FC

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Last 1

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

Last 3

AEK Athens FC

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Season

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

Season

AEK Athens FC

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Como

4.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

1.67 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Como

1.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

0.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Como

1.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

5.00 · 3 matches

Average against

Como

5.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

2.33 · 3 matches

Total average

Como

6.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

7.33 · 3 matches

Over 7.5

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 8.5

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Over 9.5

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 10.5

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Over 11.5

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Como

2.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

2.00 · 2 matches

Opponent average

Como

3.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

1.00 · 2 matches

Total average

Como

5.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

3.00 · 2 matches

Over 2.5

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Over 4.5

Como

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Over 5.5

Como

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Como

9.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

13.33 · 3 matches

Opponent average

Como

10.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

10.67 · 3 matches

Total average

Como

19.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

24.00 · 3 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Como

14.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

16.00 · 3 matches

Average shots on target

Como

6.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

4.00 · 3 matches

Average shots conceded

Como

14.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

12.33 · 3 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Como

4.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC

3.00 · 3 matches

Average xG

Como

Insufficient data

AEK Athens FC

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Como

Insufficient data

AEK Athens FC

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Como at home × AEK Athens FC away

Como at home

Como

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
1

AEK Athens FC away

AEK Athens FC

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
0
GA
0
Average goals scored

Como at home

4.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC away

0.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Como at home

1.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC away

0.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Como at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Como at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Como at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Como at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Como at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Como at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Como at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Como at home

6.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC away

3.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Como at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AEK Athens FC away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total card average

Como at home

5.00 · 1 match

AEK Athens FC away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Como

M. Baturina

Midfielder

9.00

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

N. Paz

Midfielder

8.42

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Assane Diao

Midfielder

8.02

1 matches · 86 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

T. Douvikas

Forward

7.77

1 matches · 65 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

M. Perrone

Midfielder

7.53

1 matches · 25 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

J. Butez

Goalkeeper

6.75

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

Robert Sánchez

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

AEK Athens FC

R. Marin

Midfielder

7.50

3 matches · 266 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 8 shots on target

B. Varga

Forward

7.47

3 matches · 204 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

Filipe Relvas

Centre-back

7.81

3 matches · 270 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

L. Rota

Centre-back

7.58

3 matches · 270 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

L. Majer

Midfielder

7.37

3 matches · 227 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

T. Strakosha

Goalkeeper

7.40

2 matches · 180 min

6 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Brignoli

Goalkeeper

7.34

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.