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Club Brugge KV vs Liverpool: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 5

· LONDON TIME · Jan Breydel Stadion · Referee: not provided

Club Brugge KV

Club Brugge KV

24 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSLiverpool

Liverpool

13 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

82.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 51.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 82.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

66.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 54.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 66.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 72.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.2%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

86.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 84.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 86.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

51.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 70.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 51.8%, medium confidence and a sample of 13 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.07 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

44.2%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 63

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 72.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

33.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
13 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.07

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.66 × 1.95

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1527

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 15 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.66 × 1.95

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 34.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Club Brugge KV recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats and averaged 1.70 goals scored per match. Liverpool's 10-match sample contains 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 1.80 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Club Brugge KV at home with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 8 matches, averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.88 goals conceded. Away from home, Liverpool has 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Club Brugge KV's sample and 2 of 10 matches (20%) of Liverpool's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 10 of 10 matches (100%) and 5 of 10 matches (50%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.80 per match for Club Brugge KV and 19.00 for Liverpool. On target, the averages are 5.20 and 7.10, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Club Brugge KV

5 matches
LLDWW
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
13
GA
11

Last 5

Liverpool

5 matches
WLLWL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
6

Last 10

Club Brugge KV

10 matches
LLDWWLLDLL
W
2
D
2
L
6
GF
17
GA
26

Last 10

Liverpool

10 matches
WLLWLWWWLW
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
18
GA
10

Last 15

Club Brugge KV

15 matches
LLDWWLLDLLWWWWW
W
7
D
2
L
6
GF
34
GA
30

Last 13

Liverpool

13 matches
WLLWLWWWLWWLW
W
8
D
0
L
5
GF
26
GA
14

Season

Club Brugge KV

15 matches
LLDWWLLDLLWWWWW
W
7
D
2
L
6
GF
34
GA
30

Season

Liverpool

13 matches
WLLWLWWWLWWLW
W
8
D
0
L
5
GF
26
GA
14

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Club Brugge KV

1.70 · 10 matches

Liverpool

1.80 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Club Brugge KV

2.60 · 10 matches

Liverpool

1.00 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Club Brugge KV

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Liverpool

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Club Brugge KV

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Liverpool

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Club Brugge KV

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Club Brugge KV

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Club Brugge KV

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Liverpool

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Club Brugge KV

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Club Brugge KV

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Club Brugge KV

3.00 · 10 matches

Liverpool

6.20 · 10 matches

Average against

Club Brugge KV

5.10 · 10 matches

Liverpool

3.90 · 10 matches

Total average

Club Brugge KV

8.10 · 10 matches

Liverpool

10.10 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Club Brugge KV

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Liverpool

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Club Brugge KV

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Liverpool

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Club Brugge KV

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Liverpool

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Club Brugge KV

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Liverpool

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Club Brugge KV

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Liverpool

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Club Brugge KV

1.30 · 10 matches

Liverpool

1.44 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Club Brugge KV

1.90 · 10 matches

Liverpool

1.22 · 9 matches

Total average

Club Brugge KV

3.20 · 10 matches

Liverpool

2.67 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Club Brugge KV

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Club Brugge KV

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Club Brugge KV

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Liverpool

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Club Brugge KV

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Liverpool

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Club Brugge KV

10.00 · 10 matches

Liverpool

12.60 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Club Brugge KV

9.00 · 10 matches

Liverpool

9.10 · 10 matches

Total average

Club Brugge KV

19.00 · 10 matches

Liverpool

21.70 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Club Brugge KV

11.80 · 10 matches

Liverpool

19.00 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Club Brugge KV

5.20 · 10 matches

Liverpool

7.10 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Club Brugge KV

18.20 · 10 matches

Liverpool

10.40 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Club Brugge KV

7.10 · 10 matches

Liverpool

3.60 · 10 matches

Average xG

Club Brugge KV

1.47 · 9 matches

Liverpool

2.46 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Club Brugge KV

2.24 · 9 matches

Liverpool

1.03 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Club Brugge KV at home × Liverpool away

Club Brugge KV at home

Club Brugge KV

8 matches
LDWLDWWW
W
4
D
2
L
2
GF
24
GA
15

Liverpool away

Liverpool

6 matches
LLWWWL
W
3
D
0
L
3
GF
9
GA
5
Average goals scored

Club Brugge KV at home

3.00 · 8 matches

Liverpool away

1.50 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Club Brugge KV at home

1.88 · 8 matches

Liverpool away

0.83 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Club Brugge KV at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Liverpool away

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Club Brugge KV at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Liverpool away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Club Brugge KV at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Liverpool away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Club Brugge KV at home

75% · 6 of 8 matches

Liverpool away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Club Brugge KV at home

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Liverpool away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Club Brugge KV at home

25% · 2 of 8 matches

Liverpool away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Club Brugge KV at home

13% · 1 of 8 matches

Liverpool away

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Total corner average

Club Brugge KV at home

9.13 · 8 matches

Liverpool away

9.50 · 6 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Club Brugge KV at home

75% · 6 of 8 matches

Liverpool away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Total card average

Club Brugge KV at home

3.38 · 8 matches

Liverpool away

3.83 · 6 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Club Brugge KV

N. Tresoldi

Forward

7.43

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 5 shots on target

H. Vetlesen

Midfielder

6.77

1 matches · 77 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Jan Virgili

Midfielder

6.27

1 matches · 86 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

H. Siquet

Centre-back

6.80

1 matches · 45 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Lee Han-Beom

Centre-back

6.68

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Y. Sommer

Goalkeeper

6.90

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

Argus Vanden Driessche

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Liverpool

D. Szoboszlai

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Mac Allister

Midfielder

7.60

1 matches · 69 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Isak

Forward

6.91

1 matches · 88 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

R. Araújo

Centre-back

6.67

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Víctor Muñoz

Forward

7.01

1 matches · 30 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Alisson Becker

Goalkeeper

6.84

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

G. Mamardashvili

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.