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Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Estadio de la Ceramica · Referee: not provided

Villarreal

Villarreal

21 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSParis Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain

1 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

95.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 95.3%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

63.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 88.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 63.9%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

86.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 86.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

98.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 98.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

91.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 79.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 91.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

32.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 78.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 32.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 9 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

75.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

13.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 74.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

10.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
9 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.12 × 3.24

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1430 × 1582

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 9 / 18

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.12 × 3.24

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 9 recent matches, Villarreal recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats and averaged 0.78 goals scored per match. Paris Saint Germain's 10-match sample contains 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Villarreal at home with 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 4 matches, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 goals conceded. Away from home, Paris Saint Germain has 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 8 matches, with 2.38 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Villarreal's sample and 7 of 10 matches (70%) of Paris Saint Germain's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 6 of 9 matches (67%) and 6 of 10 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.56 per match for Villarreal and 18.10 for Paris Saint Germain. On target, the averages are 4.00 and 7.10, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Villarreal

5 matches
LLLLL
W
0
D
0
L
5
GF
5
GA
15

Last 5

Paris Saint Germain

5 matches
WDDWW
W
3
D
2
L
0
GF
15
GA
7

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Last 10

Paris Saint Germain

10 matches
WDDWWWWWDW
W
7
D
3
L
0
GF
30
GA
13

Last 9

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Last 18

Paris Saint Germain

18 matches
WDDWWWWWDWDLDWLWWW
W
11
D
5
L
2
GF
51
GA
24

Season

Villarreal

9 matches
LLLLLLLDL
W
0
D
1
L
8
GF
7
GA
21

Season

Paris Saint Germain

18 matches
WDDWWWWWDWDLDWLWWW
W
11
D
5
L
2
GF
51
GA
24

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Villarreal

0.78 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

3.00 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Villarreal

2.33 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

1.30 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Villarreal

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Villarreal

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Villarreal

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Villarreal

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Villarreal

3.78 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

5.40 · 10 matches

Average against

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

3.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Villarreal

7.78 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

9.10 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Villarreal

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Villarreal

2.56 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

1.11 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Villarreal

1.78 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

2.33 · 9 matches

Total average

Villarreal

4.33 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

3.44 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Villarreal

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Villarreal

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Villarreal

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Villarreal

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Villarreal

12.44 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

9.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Villarreal

13.78 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

10.30 · 10 matches

Total average

Villarreal

26.22 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

20.00 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Villarreal

13.56 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

18.10 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Villarreal

4.00 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

7.10 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Villarreal

11.78 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

11.20 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Villarreal

4.78 · 9 matches

Paris Saint Germain

4.50 · 10 matches

Average xG

Villarreal

1.22 · 8 matches

Paris Saint Germain

1.73 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Villarreal

1.52 · 8 matches

Paris Saint Germain

1.38 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Villarreal at home × Paris Saint Germain away

Villarreal at home

Villarreal

4 matches
LLLD
W
0
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
9

Paris Saint Germain away

Paris Saint Germain

8 matches
DWWWLDWW
W
5
D
2
L
1
GF
19
GA
8
Average goals scored

Villarreal at home

1.25 · 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

2.38 · 8 matches

Average goals conceded

Villarreal at home

2.25 · 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

1.00 · 8 matches

Over 0.5

Villarreal at home

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Over 1.5

Villarreal at home

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Over 2.5

Villarreal at home

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Over 3.5

Villarreal at home

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

25% · 2 of 8 matches

Both teams scored

Villarreal at home

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

63% · 5 of 8 matches

Clean sheet

Villarreal at home

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

38% · 3 of 8 matches

Failed to score

Villarreal at home

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

13% · 1 of 8 matches

Total corner average

Villarreal at home

8.25 · 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

10.25 · 8 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Villarreal at home

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Total card average

Villarreal at home

5.00 · 4 matches

Paris Saint Germain away

4.14 · 7 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Villarreal

S. Mouriño

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Mikautadze

Forward

6.95

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

T. Buchanan

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

N. Pépé

Forward

6.76

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Freeman

Centre-back

6.56

1 matches · 45 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

P. Gulácsi

Goalkeeper

6.70

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

Rubén Gómez

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Paris Saint Germain

O. Dembélé

Forward

9.23

1 matches · 64 min

2 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 10 shots on target

Ferran Torres

Forward

9.70

1 matches · 73 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

Fabián Ruiz

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

M. Akliouche

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Vitinha

Midfielder

7.16

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Safonov

Goalkeeper

6.89

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

L. Chevalier

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.