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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Stamford Bridge · Referee: not provided

Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk

18 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

VSSporting CP

Sporting CP

7 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 2

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

58.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 58.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

74.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 74.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

94.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 94.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

78.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 78.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

40.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 66.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 40.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

36.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

38.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.47 × 1.42

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1501 × 1531

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 13

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.47 × 1.42

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 51.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Shakhtar Donetsk recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats and averaged 1.00 goal scored per match. Sporting CP's 10-match sample contains 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Shakhtar Donetsk's sample and 5 of 10 matches (50%) of Sporting CP's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 0 of 1 matches (0%) and 7 of 10 matches (70%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 8.00 per match for Shakhtar Donetsk and 12.00 for Sporting CP. On target, the averages are 2.00 and 4.70, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 5

Sporting CP

5 matches
WDLWL
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
6
GA
5

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 10

Sporting CP

10 matches
WDLWLWWLWD
W
5
D
2
L
3
GF
16
GA
12

Last 1

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 13

Sporting CP

13 matches
WDLWLWWLWDWLW
W
7
D
2
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Season

Shakhtar Donetsk

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Season

Sporting CP

13 matches
WDLWLWWLWDWLW
W
7
D
2
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

1.60 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

1.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

1.20 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

4.30 · 10 matches

Average against

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

5.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

9.80 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Shakhtar Donetsk

6.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

2.00 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Shakhtar Donetsk

3.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

2.20 · 10 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

9.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

4.20 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

Shakhtar Donetsk

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Sporting CP

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Shakhtar Donetsk

15.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

10.80 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Shakhtar Donetsk

14.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

12.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Shakhtar Donetsk

29.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

23.50 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Shakhtar Donetsk

8.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

12.00 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

4.70 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

10.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

13.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk

2.00 · 1 match

Sporting CP

4.30 · 10 matches

Average xG

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Sporting CP

1.15 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Shakhtar Donetsk

Insufficient data

Sporting CP

1.30 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Shakhtar Donetsk at home × Sporting CP away

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Shakhtar Donetsk

0 matches

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

Sporting CP

6 matches
DLWLDL
W
1
D
2
L
3
GF
6
GA
11
Average goals scored

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Sporting CP away

1.00 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

0.00 · 0 matches

Sporting CP away

1.83 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Total corner average

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

9.17 · 6 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Total card average

Shakhtar Donetsk at home

Insufficient data

Sporting CP away

4.20 · 5 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Shakhtar Donetsk

G. Mendoza

Midfielder

7.17

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Pedrinho

Centre-back

6.79

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

V. Bondar

Centre-back

6.69

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

L. Traoré

Forward

6.62

1 matches · 24 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Marlon Gomes

Midfielder

6.53

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

D. Riznyk

Goalkeeper

5.86

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Fesyun

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Sporting CP

Geny Catamo

Midfielder

7.56

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

L. Suárez

Forward

7.14

1 matches · 74 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

R. Zalazar

Midfielder

6.91

1 matches · 66 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

Eduardo Quaresma

Centre-back

7.05

1 matches · 84 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Araújo

Centre-back

6.75

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Rui Silva

Goalkeeper

7.08

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

Kaique

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.