RadarOnze
PTEN
≡

Manchester United vs AS Roma: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Old Trafford · Referee: not provided

Manchester United

Manchester United

4 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 4

VSAS Roma

AS Roma

17 · 1 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 0

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

65.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 86.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 65.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

55.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 55.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

81.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 81.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

62.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 76.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 62.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

19.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

59.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.03

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1509 × 1502

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.03

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, Manchester United recorded 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 4.00 goals scored per match. AS Roma's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats, with 1.00 goal scored per match.

The venue split shows Manchester United at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, averaging 4.00 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded. Away from home, AS Roma has 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 1.00 goal scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 0 of 1 matches (0%) of Manchester United's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of AS Roma's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 1 matches (100%) and 0 of 1 matches (0%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 21.00 per match for Manchester United and 8.00 for AS Roma. On target, the averages are 10.00 and 3.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 5

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 1

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Last 1

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Last 1

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Season

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

Season

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Manchester United

4.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Manchester United

7.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

3.00 · 1 match

Average against

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

1.00 · 1 match

Total average

Manchester United

9.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

4.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Manchester United

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

2.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Manchester United

1.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

4.00 · 1 match

Total average

Manchester United

2.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

6.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Manchester United

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Manchester United

12.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

19.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Manchester United

13.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

12.00 · 1 match

Total average

Manchester United

25.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

31.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Manchester United

21.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

8.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Manchester United

10.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

3.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Manchester United

11.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

11.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Manchester United

0.00 · 1 match

AS Roma

5.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Manchester United

Insufficient data

AS Roma

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Manchester United

Insufficient data

AS Roma

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Manchester United at home × AS Roma away

Manchester United at home

Manchester United

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
4
GA
0

AS Roma away

AS Roma

1 match
D
W
0
D
1
L
0
GF
1
GA
1
Average goals scored

Manchester United at home

4.00 · 1 match

AS Roma away

1.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Manchester United at home

0.00 · 1 match

AS Roma away

1.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Manchester United at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Manchester United at home

9.00 · 1 match

AS Roma away

4.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Manchester United at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

AS Roma away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total card average

Manchester United at home

2.00 · 1 match

AS Roma away

6.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Manchester United

Matheus Cunha

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

Bruno Fernandes

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Lisandro Martínez

Centre-back

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

P. Dorgu

Centre-back

7.87

1 matches · 72 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

B. Šeško

Forward

7.84

1 matches · 64 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

S. Lammens

Goalkeeper

6.66

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

K. Darlow

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

AS Roma

B. Cristante

Midfielder

8.08

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

D. Malen

Forward

6.96

1 matches · 87 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

M. Koné

Midfielder

7.20

1 matches · 53 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

E. Ndicka

Centre-back

6.78

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Pisilli

Midfielder

6.75

1 matches · 37 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Svilar

Goalkeeper

7.72

1 matches · 90 min

4 saves · 0 goals conceded

P. Gollini

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.