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FC Porto vs Napoli: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Stadium not provided · Referee: not provided

FC Porto

FC Porto

31 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -2

VSNapoli

Napoli

27 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

65.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 56.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 65.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

52.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 75

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 52.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

74.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 74.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

93.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 99.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 93.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

76.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 76.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

44.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 54.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 44.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

27.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 71.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 77.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

47.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.60 × 1.15

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1489 × 1475

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 1 / 9

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.60 × 1.15

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 1 recent match, FC Porto recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat and averaged 0.00 goals scored per match. Napoli's 9-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, with 1.00 goal scored per match.

The venue split shows FC Porto at home with 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 1 match, averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Napoli has 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 4 matches, with 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 0 of 1 matches (0%) of FC Porto's sample and 4 of 9 matches (44%) of Napoli's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 0 of 1 matches (0%) and 3 of 9 matches (33%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 5.00 per match for FC Porto and 11.00 for Napoli. On target, the averages are 0.00 and 3.56, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Last 5

Napoli

5 matches
LLDLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
7

Last 1

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Last 9

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Last 1

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Last 9

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Season

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Season

Napoli

9 matches
LLDLWDLWL
W
2
D
2
L
5
GF
9
GA
16

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

FC Porto

0.00 · 1 match

Napoli

1.00 · 9 matches

Average goals conceded

FC Porto

2.00 · 1 match

Napoli

1.78 · 9 matches

Over 0.5

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Napoli

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 1.5

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Napoli

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 2.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Both teams scored

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Clean sheet

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Failed to score

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

FC Porto

2.00 · 1 match

Napoli

5.44 · 9 matches

Average against

FC Porto

5.00 · 1 match

Napoli

3.56 · 9 matches

Total average

FC Porto

7.00 · 1 match

Napoli

9.00 · 9 matches

Over 7.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

78% · 7 of 9 matches

Over 8.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Over 9.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Over 10.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Over 11.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

FC Porto

1.00 · 1 match

Napoli

2.00 · 8 matches

Opponent average

FC Porto

3.00 · 1 match

Napoli

1.63 · 8 matches

Total average

FC Porto

4.00 · 1 match

Napoli

3.63 · 8 matches

Over 2.5

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Napoli

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Over 3.5

FC Porto

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Napoli

38% · 3 of 8 matches

Over 4.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

25% · 2 of 8 matches

Over 5.5

FC Porto

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli

13% · 1 of 8 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

FC Porto

10.00 · 1 match

Napoli

13.56 · 9 matches

Opponent average

FC Porto

17.00 · 1 match

Napoli

9.89 · 9 matches

Total average

FC Porto

27.00 · 1 match

Napoli

23.44 · 9 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

FC Porto

5.00 · 1 match

Napoli

11.00 · 9 matches

Average shots on target

FC Porto

0.00 · 1 match

Napoli

3.56 · 9 matches

Average shots conceded

FC Porto

20.00 · 1 match

Napoli

13.67 · 9 matches

Average shots on target conceded

FC Porto

10.00 · 1 match

Napoli

5.33 · 9 matches

Average xG

FC Porto

Insufficient data

Napoli

1.33 · 8 matches

Average xG against

FC Porto

Insufficient data

Napoli

1.61 · 8 matches

Home vs away

FC Porto at home × Napoli away

FC Porto at home

FC Porto

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
0
GA
2

Napoli away

Napoli

4 matches
DLLL
W
0
D
1
L
3
GF
3
GA
11
Average goals scored

FC Porto at home

0.00 · 1 match

Napoli away

0.75 · 4 matches

Average goals conceded

FC Porto at home

2.00 · 1 match

Napoli away

2.75 · 4 matches

Over 0.5

FC Porto at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Napoli away

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Over 1.5

FC Porto at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Napoli away

100% · 4 of 4 matches

Over 2.5

FC Porto at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli away

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

FC Porto at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli away

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Both teams scored

FC Porto at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli away

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Clean sheet

FC Porto at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli away

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Failed to score

FC Porto at home

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Napoli away

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Total corner average

FC Porto at home

7.00 · 1 match

Napoli away

10.75 · 4 matches

Over 8.5 corners

FC Porto at home

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Napoli away

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Total card average

FC Porto at home

4.00 · 1 match

Napoli away

4.00 · 4 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

FC Porto

N. Pérez

Centre-back

6.62

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Kiwior

Centre-back

6.61

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

S. Giménez

Forward

6.52

1 matches · 17 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Borja Sainz

Forward

6.44

1 matches · 22 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Martim Fernandes

Centre-back

6.42

1 matches · 73 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Diogo Costa

Goalkeeper

8.27

1 matches · 90 min

8 saves · 0 goals conceded

Andorinha

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Napoli

Rafa Marín

Centre-back

7.10

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Olivera

Centre-back

6.85

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Amir Rrahmani

Centre-back

6.76

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

G. Di Lorenzo

Centre-back

6.73

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Politano

Midfielder

6.64

1 matches · 57 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

A. Meret

Goalkeeper

7.40

1 matches · 45 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

V. Milinković-Savić

Goalkeeper

6.72

1 matches · 45 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.